Despite the most recent estimations from the European Commission, which foresees a drop of 6% of the Romanian GDP, the Romanian minister of Finance, Florin Citu, says he keeps his initial estimations of only 1.9% drop in GDP at the end of the year.
All the more, he also rejects the estimations of an 8% drop in GDP, as some of the specialists offered during the pandemic.
Nobody predicts an 8% drop anylonger after we had a 2.7% growth in Q1. It is impossible to drop 8%. Our official estimation remains of a drop of only 1.9% in GDP, until further data. All we have done so far was to avoid the worst case scenarios.
Romanian Minister of Finance cited by Agerpres
On the other hand, the European Commission estimated a decrease of 6% for the Romanian GDP, but followed by a growth of 4% in 2021.
Romania is one of the few European countries who registered such a growth in Q1. Along with Romania, with 2.7%, Lithuania and Bulgaria also recorded GDP growths in Q1, with 2.5% and 2.4% respectively. Though, as we showed, in these countries the domestic consumption counts for around 60% of the GDP. An economy which relies on consumption is not a healthy one and the growth of the GDP doesn’t automatically bring wealth for the citizens.
One thing is certain: things aren’t going well in Romania from the medical perspective and the number of COVID-19 infections grow each day. In this case, the re-imposing of a new lock-down is taken into consideration and, along with it, the optimistic estimations of the Romanian minister of Finance might prove to be wrong by the end of the year.
Photo source: Romanian Ministry of Finance
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