Five issues likely to be approached at G20 summit in Japan

Leaders from the Group of 20 nations (G20) will meet in Osaka starting this Friday in what is likely to be the most important summit since the last global financial crisis.

According to the information available in the international press, the most important political figures that will be present at this event are: Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, as well as US President Donald Trump, President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, China’s President Xi Jinping, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, and European Council President Donald Tusk.

Back in 2008, when the G20 met in Washington, they were focused on how to piece the world economy back together and how to avoid a future crisis. A decade later, the Group of 20 nations faces another big challenge in resolving a US-China trade war that has rattled businesses around the world, and cast a shadow over the global economy. That is the reason why the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday will be so closely watched. Behind closed doors, leaders will likely debate the threat of conflict between Washington and Tehran and the raging US-China trade war, which shows little signs of stopping.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE

The president of the European Union Council, Donald Tusk, told Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Thursday: “This will be a difficult G-20. There are global challenges to be met. We need to step up to avoid the climate threats.”

In such a fierce atmosphere, Japan, the host country of the G20 summit, strives to gather all the signatures on the final press release of the summit. This document is particularly important through the diplomatic signal it transmits, traditionally depicting the free exchange and reduction of greenhouse gases – as many red lines of a US president as a major critic of the Paris to fight global warming.

2. RISING PROTECTIONISM

One more issue to watch is how the leaders seek to position the G20 on free trade. Part of the G20’s mandate is to “resist protectionism,” says John Kirton, founder of the G20 Research Group. It comes at a time of increasing recognition that the current international financial system is in need of reform because it hasn’t benefited everyone, so expect some discussion on that too.

Formed in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, the G20 came together in recognition of the fact that we live in an increasingly interconnected world. So when there’s a currency crisis in a far flung part of South East Asia, there is the risk of contagion. History has shown that coming together to solve the world’s problems has worked. What hurts one of us, could hurt the rest of us, so it makes sense to work together.

3. IRAN AND OIL

While Iran is not a G20 member, it will very much be there in spirit as the threat of war with the United States looms after a series of incidents in the Gulf and after the escalating rhetoric. Trump at the last minute halted an air strike on Iran last week in retaliation for its downing of a U.S. drone.

Since then, he has strengthened sanctions on Iran and threatened it with “obliteration”. Iran said his sanctions were “mentally retarded”. As well as the Gulf tensions, oil markets are on edge about a looming deadline for OPEC to decide whether to extend production cuts. That could be the focus of Osaka meetings between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

4. GLOBAL ECONOMY

Policymakers are in a bind as global growth slows because of trade tensions, with the U.S. Federal Reserve signaling it will cut interest rates. That is putting pressure on the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan to come up with ways to keep their currencies from spiking, which would undermine their export-reliant economies.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hopes to get free-trade language in the meeting’s closing press release but faces resistance from Donald Trump, who last year forced the G20 to drop its longstanding pledge to avoid protectionism.

5. OCEAN TRASH

For Japan, the world’s second largest generator of plastic packaging waste per person behind the United States, the problem is more than proper disposal. Environmental issues are likely to get a fair amount of attention at the G20 meeting. As the summit chair, Japan is hoping to get an agreement from G20 members on the reduction of glut of plastic waste in the oceans.

Moreover, single-use plastic bottles and utensils are banned from the international media center, and reporters received gift bags that included a cup made from recycled plastic, imprinted with a cartoon of a crying turtle paddling beside a floating water bottle, straw and grocery bag. “Let’s protect the ocean from plastic waste!” reads the caption.

What`s next?

No significant decisions of the parties involved in various meetings in the margins of the Osaka summit should be expected. As a rule, such meetings are “on the way” and aim at harmonizing positions on topics that are considered sensitive, in the perspective of high-level future meetings. Although the G20’s discussions will be intense, the final outcome of the summit will probably not come out of the group’s paradigm, with agreements and recommendations being formulated for all countries in the effort to maintain the current international system, in a context of major disputes, unprecedented since its adoption in the middle of the last century.