Closer to War: U.S. Greenlights Ukraine’s Use of ATACMS Missiles

In a pivotal shift in military policy, with only two months remaining of the failing Biden administration until Donald Trump takes full power, the United States has authorized Ukraine to utilize Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) for operations within Russian territory. This decision marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict and comes amid increasing military cooperation between Russia and North Korea, raising concerns about a broader confrontation.

A Strategic Shift

Historically, the U.S. has refrained from allowing Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia, fearing that such actions could provoke a severe escalation of hostilities. However, the recent deployment of North Korean troops to assist Russian forces in the Kursk region has prompted a reassessment of this stance.

The Biden administration’s decision enables Ukraine to target critical military assets deep within Russian territory, potentially altering the dynamics of the conflict.

The ATACMS missiles, which have a striking range of up to 300 kilometres (approximately 186 miles), represent one of the most advanced weapon systems supplied to Ukraine. Their precision allows for effective strikes on airfields, ammunition depots, and logistical hubs, which are crucial for sustaining military operations. Ukrainian officials have long argued that restricting their use to only Ukrainian territory handicaps their military efforts, akin to “fighting with one hand tied behind their back”.

Implications for the Conflict

The authorization is expected to empower Ukraine significantly as it prepares for potential counter-offensives against Russian forces bolstered by North Korean troops. By targeting Russian assets in Kursk and beyond, Ukraine aims to disrupt supply lines and reduce the effectiveness of enemy operations. This move is also seen to deter further aggression from Russia and its allies, signalling that any military escalation will have consequences.

Despite these advantages, experts caution that the impact of ATACMS may be limited. Russian forces have already begun relocating critical assets deeper into their territory in anticipation of such strikes. Furthermore, there are concerns about the overall quantity of missiles available for deployment and whether they can substantially alter the war’s course.

Political Context

This decision comes at a politically sensitive time as President Biden approaches the end of his term, with President-elect Donald Trump poised to take office soon. Trump has expressed scepticism regarding continued U.S. military support for Ukraine, raising questions about the future trajectory of American involvement in the conflict. The timing of this authorization may reflect a desire to solidify support for Ukraine before potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy.

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to use ATACMS against Russian targets represents a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict and reflects changing geopolitical dynamics. As both sides prepare for intensified military engagements, this development could lead to increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia and their respective allies.

The coming weeks will be crucial as Ukraine seeks to leverage this new capability while navigating the complex international relations and military strategy landscape.