According to the answers, if elections were to be organized this Sunday, the results would look like this:

• PSD – Social Democratic Party (in power) – 28%
• AUR – The Alliance for the Union of Romanians – 22%
• PNL – The National Liberal Party (in power) – 18%
• USR – The Save Romania Union – 13%
• UDMR – The Democratic Union of the Hungarian in Romania (now in Opposition) – 6%

This is quite an exciting trend – while the Socialists and the Liberals, now forming the Governing Coalition, fall in voting intention, the Nationalists drastically increase. This trend follows the high inflation rate, the slowing down of the economy, and the people’s lack of trust in the Government.

The recent three-week strike of the teachers showed that society has far more profound problems, and disappointment with Government’s actions is acute. This is why the Governing parties – PSD and PNL, are dropping while AUR, the only Opposition party visible through actions rather than statements, grows.

Rumours of early elections are not rumours any longer, and political pundits expect such a move to be adopted by both PSD and PNL, for fear the Nationalists would grow even more.

Meanwhile, the recent PM rotation is seen as good by 12%, while 35% say it is terrible. 48% of respondents have a neutral attitude towards this topic, while 49% say things will stay the same. On the other hand, 34% say things will get worse.

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Catalin Drula, interim leader of the Save Romania Union Party (USR), stated on one local Romanian television on May 24 that Social Democratic Party leader Marcel Ciolacu lacks the courage to enter the Government as prime minister in May 2023 because Romania borrows 1,000 euros per second. In his opinion, the country heads towards the Greek model of bankruptcy.

According to the USR leader, Romania currently has “an irresponsible socialist government with epaulettes.” The meaning of the expression is that, in his opinion, the Government is led by the secret services, not by the politicians. As a reminder, the current Romanian Prime Minister is the ex-chief of staff of the Romanian Army.

Catalin Drula highlighted that there are social class differences and significant gaps between high and low-income people in Romania. For example, a Romanian secretary of state’s salary is approximately EUR 2,000, while the minimum net wage in Romania is EUR 300.

They (Social-Democrats) do not have the courage to cut special pensions, they keep their privileges. That kills us in Romania, that there are privileged classes and that there is such a big difference between small and large pensions.

Catalin Drula, USR leader

Drula’s idea is that, with all the price hikes and rising inflation, the possibility that Romania will be in the scenario of Greece in 2009 is relatively high.

We are heading towards the Greek bankruptcy model, it is not clear if in a year or two, because the state borrows money at an alarming pace, at higher and higher interest rates, because out of six RON spent from the budget, we have 4 RON as income and we borrow 2 at the moment, because inflation has exploded and the government has an irresponsible fiscal policy, which deepens the budget deficit.

Catalin Drula, USR leader

Will Romania get into that situation that Greece had to face ten years ago? Hopefully not, but the rising inflation and the budgetary deficit might cause economic turmoil. Meanwhile, the Government seems to be more preoccupied with increasing taxes and giving up the fiscal facilities offered to some industries, including IT and construction. These measures won’t help the private sector, and this is a fact.

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His resignation ends a period of internal fighting within the party. Lately, the former USR president, Dan Barna, has attacked Ciolos openly and repeatedly on different subjects. The disagreement between the two leaders started along with the party’s fall in the opinion polls. From governing in September 2021, USR became one of the small Opposition parties with only 12% voting intention.

Dacian Ciolos is one of the most prominent political figures in Romania. He was Minister of Agriculture, European Commissioner for Agriculture, Romanian Prime Minister and a member of the European Parliament. Before taking over the USR presidency, his last position was the president of the Renew Europe group in the EP, a position supported by the French president, Emmanuel Macron.

USR is an artificial alliance of two main parties: USR and PLUS. They formed a political association during the last campaigns, and both parties agreed to change the partnership’s name to USR. Their ‘marriage’ seemed to last until the next Parliamentary elections, but Ciolos’s decision ended the agreement abruptly.

Now, Dacian Ciolos is to leave along with all the other PLUS members. The party, now on the fourth in the voters’ preferences, is to split in two. The USR leadership is to be assured by Catalin Drula, the former Minister of Transport and one of the party’s vice-presidents.

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Unfortunately, the last nomination hasn’t gathered enough potential votes in the Parliament and therefore the designated Cabinet hasn’t got to the Parliament. Meanwhile, the parties started discussing again and this thing is very good. It is very clear that the trials to form minority governments haven’t yielded any results and, as a consequence, I cannot accept this sort of approach anymore. In conclusion, I will postpone calling for the formal consultations until a majority is formed following the consultations between parties, a majority assumed by the parties that will be willing to propose a cabinet. Only then, when this majority will be assumed, I will summon consultations to form a new government.

Klaus Iohannis on delaying the designation of a new PM

The political crisis in Romania started when the Liberal government failed following the no-confidence motion in Parliament. Klaus Iohannis nominated two Prime Ministers after that, but both failed to gather a majority.

The math has recently changed, though, for the former allies. PNL – National Liberal Party, USR – Union Save Romania, and UDMR – the Magyar minority party, no longer have a parliamentary majority. This happened after tens of former Liberal MPs resigned from their Parliamentary group and declared themselves as ‘not affiliated MPs.’ This was a consequence of the fact that the former leader of the Liberal Party, Mr. Ludovic Orban, lost the party’s internal elections in September.

As the coalition with USR and UDMR won’t get the necessary number of votes in Parliament, PNL is forced to try and form a majority with their political archrivals, PSD – Social Democratic Party. Sources say this is going to be the future alliance to form the government, PSD and PNL. The question is which one will be offered the Prime Minister position.

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At the moment, the strategy of the Liberal Party is to block the no-confidence motion to be registered by USR-PLUS and AUR. So far the strategy has succeeded, but the main Opposition party, PSD, has another no-confidence motion ready to be registered if the other two parties fail with theirs.

President Klaus Iohannis summoned the former coalition partners for discussions on the political crisis, but the USR-PLUS leaders declined the invitation for the moment. According to their official statements, there is no turning back as long as Florin Citu is Prime Minister.

In this unstable political context, the Euro – RON exchange rate reached a historical level, with 1 Euro rated at 4.9475 RON.

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The alliance of the former ruling coalition party USR-PLUS with the Opposition party AUR generated controversy. Prime Minister Florin Citu accused AUR of being ‘extremists‘ and told the press he would complain to the official institutions in Brussels about this situation. Also, he said he expected the resignation of all the USR-PLUS ministers after they had allied with the Opposition against the Government.

On the other hand, President Klaus Iohannis mentioned that this alliance between AUR and USR-PLUS broke the confidence of the Romanian people who, in his opinion, want the country to be ruled by a center-right coalition.

Meanwhile, the main opposition party, PSD – Social Democratic Party says its MPs will vote a no-confidence motion against Prime Minster Citu, even though the procedure was initiated by another party. PSD was preparing their own no-motion text.

At the same time, PSD doesn’t offer any signs they want to rule the country during this rather complicated period. Party leader Marcel Ciolacu told the press on many occasions that his party wants to win all the elections in 2024, meaning the presidential elections, the local and the parliamentary elections. In this context, the future Prime Minister could be nominated by the very same party who offered the current one, PNL – National Liberal Party. Sources mention Ilie Bolojan, the leader of PNL Bihor, a country from Western Romania, as a potential proposal for Prime Minister, but this is only one of many variants to be considered.

On Monday the USR-PLUS ministers are expected to resign from office, a situation that will make PNL a minority ruling party. USR-PLUS could return to the ruling coalition once Florin Citu is ousted from office.

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The situation escalated quickly, in just a few hours. On Wednesday, the USR-PLUS ministers left the meeting where the PM and the ministers of the Government were discussing adopting a political program dedicated to offering consistent funds for the local communities. USR-PLUS accused Florin Citu and the other liberal official of dedicating this program to the liberal mayors, not for properly developing the local communities. This move would have ensured the Prime Minister the votes of the liberal mayors before the internal elections in September.

The crisis got even worse. After President Klaus Iohannis publicly asked for calm within the ruling coalition, another decision of the Prime Minister Citu sets the coalition on fire. In short, Citu decided to ask President Klaus Iohannis for the resignation from the office of the Minister of Justice, Mr. Ion Stelian, a member of the USR-PLUS party. This was clearly done without him consulting the USR-PLUS leaders, which he promised he would do in case he wanted to revoke any of the USR-PLUS members of the Government. From this perspective, it is a clear breach of the political understanding between the Prime Minister and the coalition leaders.

In these conditions, USR-PLUS wants to break the coalition and asks for the resignation of Prime Minister Florin Citu.

The Prime Minister is currently in a plain campaign before the internal election. On September 25 he will run for a mandate as the president of the National Liberal Party against the current leader, Mr. Ludovic Orban.

A decision on this crisis is to be expected on Thursday morning. It is interesting what President Iohannis will do with the proposition to dismiss the Minister of Justice.

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The coalition members, PNL – National Liberal Party, USR-PLUS and UDMR – the Hungarian minority party, only have 35% of the voting intention. We say `only` because they were supposed to represent the will of the majority. It didn’t happen at the beginning of this coalition when all these parties gathered 46% of the votes, it doesn’t happen now, but now the situation is more visible than ever.

Namely, PNL has 18% of the voting intention, from 25% at the elections, while USR-PLUS has 12%, from 15% at the elections, and the Hungarian party has 5%, which is the minimum required percentage to enter the Parliament during elections.

Meanwhile, the main Opposition party, PSD – Social Democratic Party, gathers 34% of the voting intention. The party met a solid growth, as it has got only 28% during the last elections in 2020. The paradox is PSD barely did anything to deserve this growth. Its leader prefers to post on social media from time to time, criticizing the Government, but no other actions taken.

When asked about this style, the leader of the social-democrats asked the journalists: “What do you want us to do? To set ourselves on fire in front of the Parliament building?“. He was definitely right. With so many mistakes committed by the current Government since the right-wing coalition took power in Romania, it would’ve been impossible for the Opposition parties to fail.

One political formation, in particular, draws attention through the unprecedented growth: AUR – Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, the nationalist party. This party came out of almost nowhere at the last elections, where they got a little more than 9% of the votes. Now they stand at 14% and they are on a growing trend. Their messages against the government’s measures attracted a good percentage of the population and, if the pandemic lasts longer, their percentages will definitely increase.

At the moment, a possible coalition between PSD and AUR gathers 48% of the voting intention, 13% more than the current governing coalition has.

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Gica Hagi was invited to attend the football game between North Macedonia and Austria, played on Sunday, June 13, at the National Arena stadium in Bucharest. He went to the stadium along with other famous football players, Gica Popescu and Dorinel Munteanu, two of the former members of the Romanian football team. The three players played for famous European teams, such as Barcelona, Real Madrid, or Galatasaray, along with others.

The bigger their fame, the bigger the surprise for Gica Hagi and his friends: they were invited to the stands, instead of being invited, as it should’ve been normal, to the VIP area.

The incident wouldn’t have got to the public if the VIP area wasn’t reserved at that game for the Romanian politicians. Among them, as you can see in the picture below, real “VIPs” of Romanian politics: the Bucharest City Mayor, Nicusor Dan, the leader of the National Liberal Party, Ludovic Orban, the Vice-Premier of the Romanian Government, Dan Barna, the Romanian Foreign Minister, Bogdan Aurescu, and the Speaker of the Romanian Senate, Anca Dragu.

No wonder why Dan Barna, the Romanian Vice-Premier, was offering his autograph, during a political campaign, to Emerich Jenei, the coach who won, along with Steaua Bucharest, the Champions League trophy in 1986, the only football trophy won by a Romanian team.

This is not only about Gica Hagi’s humiliation. By humiliating him, the Romanian politicians also humiliate the Romanian sport altogether.

A proper gesture for any of the politicians in the VIP area would’ve been to offer his seat to any one of the three great players. Another proper gesture, yet populist, would’ve been for the politicians to go and stay along with Hagi in the stands.

With a national team that hasn’t qualified for the EURO 2020 final tournament, the image of the Romanian sport was at its lowest on Sunday, June 13, even though the national team didn’t play. What could be worse?

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Sector 1 doesn’t look like a Capital City area any longer, but more like an apocalyptic scene from a dystopian Hollywood movie. People living there describe the rats that feast from the bags as being “as large as a grown cat”. Pestilential smell engulfs the already polluted air of the city, while the urban landscape makes room for the newly arrived new-art architectural masterpieces: mountains of trash.

How does the French-born mayor manage the waste problem?

The French-born mayor doesn’t want to hear any complaints from the citizens. She even told a journalist to call the local police regarding the subject, not her. In their turn, the local police told the journalist that “they would investigate the contracts regarding the waste management in the Sector”. Still, they mentioned they were not able to do anything regarding the waste collection process.

Clotilde Armand thinks she can engage in a war of attrition with the company that has the waste management contract in Sector 1. She refuses to pay the overdue invoices, summing up millions of Euros, hoping for winning the battle and close a contract with another company. Her opinion is that the company’s representatives are mobsters.

The controversy around the mayor is bigger than that. She is suspected of having won her mandate by fraud and the case is investigated by the Prosecutor’s Office. The prosecutor designated to handle the case told the national media that fraud is going to be proved. Official communication on the subject is to be issued at the end of July when the ballots re-counting process will finish.

The re-counting process was initiated after images with different people entering the ballot-depositing room were broadcast by national TV stations.

Apparently, according to sources, the mayor has got fewer votes than the ones mentioned on the official recording. This wasn’t yet communicated on official channels.

How is the crisis going to end? At the moment, Bucharest citizens labeled some of the bags with “VOTES”, hoping for the mayor to come and collect them. It’s a good way of mocking the situation, but that’s not going to solve the problem.

Meanwhile, the waste management company decided to collect the garbage from the hospitals in the Sector. This is to prove they act in good faith, but, as they say, the truth is somewhere in the middle between the contracts. Anyway, the public opinion says the mayor shouldn’t have endangered the health of the citizens and drag them to this war with the waste management company. Her mission and any mayor’s mission is to protect the interest of the citizens. In this case, the sacrifice of the citizens is too big, even for a mayor’s war.

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