The official communication is that the negotiations stuck in the fishing clauses of the deal. Though important for the UK, fishing is not something to overthrow a huge deal such as Brexit. It seems that the will of those who want a hard Brexit won this time. Both UK leaders and the EU ones prepare the population for a no-deal result after 3 years of negotiations.

Experts say that UK will have more to lose than the EU countries from a no-deal Brexit. Let’s have a look at where the situation’s at from the Romanian point of view.

What are the consequences of a no-deal Brexit for the Romanian economy and for the Romanian people?

The situation looks bad enough wherever you’re looking at it from, UK or Romanian side. Still, UK has to lose more in relation with all the remaining EU countries. Romanian economy will suffer, but the British one will suffer more.

According to the international law, if no deal is agreed until December 31, on January 1st the WTO rules will apply for the relationship between UK and EU, including border controls and economic tariffs.

According to an assessment by Oxford Economics cited by Deutsche Welle into the economic implications of Brexit, EU exports to the UK will be subject to an average 3.1% tariffs and 1.4% “nontariff barriers.” Besides, there will be a 3.3% tariffs on goods going into the EU, meaning expensive pricing and with a direct consequence over the intention of the EU consumers to buy the British goods. Moreover, cars and agricultural goods will be subject to 10% more and dairy products to even 36% more. It seems that the British goods we were used to see on the shelves or in the stores will no longer be available or, if available, will no longer be attractive.

But the UK will suffer the most in this case as well: 80% of the UK food is imported from the EU countries. The European exporters, including the Romanian ones, will find it harder to sell their products to the UK, as there will be additional tariffs and also different standards to be reached.

The textile manufacturers will be also affected and, as we mentioned in a previous post, the bankruptcy of the UK based fashion retailers already affects the Romanian factories. Still, a no-deal Brexit will affect 12,000 jobs in Romanian textile factories and 130,000 in all the EU countries.

The British investments in Romania will also suffer, as the barriers between the two countries will be physical this time and the border control will definitely impact the time spent during the transport of goods.

Above that, all the British investors will have to reconsider their presence in Romania and in the EU countries, as their business model will have to adapt to the new circumstances. More than 5,500 British capital firms were registered in Romania in 2020 and the value of the share capital of more than EUR 1.5 B.

More, a part of those 650,000 Romanians who applied for residence in UK will reconsider their presence in the kingdom along the way. The reality might get worse than it is at the moment and the EU countries could look more appealing to the Romanians and all the other nations working in UK. Romanians form the second largest expat community in the UK after Poles, but the situation could change.

The tourism will also be impacted by a no-deal Brexit and “Visa for the UK” will become mandatory in certain circumstances. It seems that in the beginning the EU citizens will be able to travel without visa, if the period of staying is shorter than 90 days, but no one knows what will really happen.

Is there any chance to avoid a no-deal Brexit?

At this time we see both the EU and the UK leaders preparing the general public for the worse, meaning they already know there are no reasonable chances for a deal. Only a miracle may save the situation.

What is to come? The UK will become a country such as Turkey for the EU, in terms of economic relations. In doesn’t mean that the British firms won’t be able to conduct business with the European companies, but it would be more difficult than it used to be.

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More likely, these countries have to change their Constitutions, as in this case a separate treaty with the UK can’t overpass the national law. It means that an Austrian, a German or a Slovenian might commit a crime in UK and flee back to their native country and escape unpunished.

Romanian minister of Justice announced Brexit doesn’t affect the cooperation between Romania and UK regarding the extradition processes. Mr. Catalin Predoiu stated that even if UK does’t apply anymore the European procedures, there still are in power the judicial cooperation treaties between the two countries.

Romania is still waiting for the British authorities to extradite two Romanian persons from UK, namely Puiu Popoviciu and Alexander Adamescu, the last one the son of a controversial Romanian businessman. These two are known to live in the UK and the Romanian authorities have issued international warrants for them.

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Romania’s Foreign Minister, Mr. Bogdan Aurescu, an experienced diplomat and negotiator, asked UK to apply the same regime for all the European Union members. This approach is definitely the best for countries such as Romania or even Bulgaria, two of the states who were subjects of a massive campaign of manipulating British citizens – do you remember the “Romanian invasion” before the Free Movement Act in January 2014? There were no invasion, but a lot of tabloid newspapers were sold at that time.

Will UK apply the same regime to all the EU countries, or will it negotiate separately with each and every one of them? At this moment, nobody could predict the outcome of this year, the last one UK has to maintain the same regime as the existing one. One thing is for granted: both UK and the EU member states have to sit down at the negotiation table and find the proper solutions for all the parties involved in this process.

Romania has 450,000 nationals living in the UK, out of which 435,000 applied for a residency through the pre-settle or settle status.

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In fact, there are three main questions to answer when it comes to Brexit effects on Romania and on Romanian people:

How does Brexit affect the Romanians living in UK?

The UK officials encouraged every EU or non-EU national to apply for the pre-settled or settled status. The pre-settled status is for the people living in the UK for less than 5 years, the settled one is for those who lived there for more than 5 years.

Now, almost all the Romanians applied so far for one of the statuses, along with other nationals living in the UK. Those who haven’t done it so far still have time to do it until June 2021. It is a reasonable time frame and we believe the number of Romanians to apply to stay in the UK will increase.

Now, there is a catch here: by applying for the settled or pre-settled status, no British authority guarantees anybody the acceptance for continuing living in UK. Anyway, this is a good way of having an official record of all the non-British citizens living and (if) working in UK, as to have official statistics regarding the immigrants living on British soil. As simple as that.

How does Brexit affect the Romanians travelling to UK?

The UK and the European officials have said that up to the end of this year there will be a status quo in terms of travelling conditions applied for the EU citizens travelling to UK and the British citizens travelling to EU.

The future will tell, but it seems both EU and UK agreed to offer the same conditions applicable both for the EU citizens travelling to UK and for the British ones travelling to EU countries.

Will you be able to visit UK after Brexit? Of course you will!

How does Brexit affect the Romanian economy?

It seems Romania was not one of the British investors’ favourite country, so to speak. Thus, in 2018 UK ranked only on the tenth place by direct investments in the Romanian economy, with EUR 1.7 billion, while the Romanian exports reached EUR 2.9 billion. Meanwhile, the Romanian imports from the UK reached EUR 1.7 billion.

Undoubtedly, the commercial exchange between the two countries will go on and we believe that both Romania and UK will find common grounds for trade in the future.

Brexit is not something to fear about and the Romanian citizens, both those living in UK and those who live in Romania but travel to UK or want to continue their business with their British partners, have to know there is life after Brexit, exactly as it was before it.

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According to reliable sources, UK lost 66 billion pounds because of Brexit. According to others, money is not the only thing UK lost during this time, but also the most precious resource of all: people.

A few weeks ago we wrote about the Polish workers coming back home. They were attracted home by the good level of salaries, Poland becoming the first country from the former East-European communist bloc to have a developed economy. Lots of other nationals left UK for fear the attitude of the British people will radically change after Brexit, but also because the living conditions improved back home.

Romanians decided to stay. So far, 435,000 out of those 450,000 Romanians living in UK applied for pre-settled or settled status. The pre-settled status helps those who have been living in UK for up to 5 years, the settled status helps those who have been living for more than 5 years. Those who haven’t applied yet, still have time to apply for these statuses up to June 2021.

It has to be mentioned that the EU citizens will freely travel in the UK after Brexit, at least up to December 31. It is important for all those who want to travel to UK or even study in the British universities. Meanwhile, the British will be able to freely travel within EU borders.

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At the moment only two countries are in pole-position to be officially invited for accession, but they can’t compare in terms of economic or military power with the United Kingdom: Albania and Northern Macedonia. Yet, both still have to fulfill lots of additional pre-accession conditions in order to be accepted in the EU.

Turkey began the negotiations for the integration in 2005, but EU decided to stop the process after president Erdogan began the political cleansing inside the country, following the failed coup against him in July 2016. Now the EP Turkey rapporteur, Nacho Sánchez Amor, comes with a new narrative: “We need to keep the Turkish EU accession process on track.“

Why has the EU decided to change its rhetoric regarding Turkey’s integration? The reasons have demographic, economic and military grounds. Turkey has a population of over 80 million inhabitants, a GDP of over 850 billion USD and the second army from NATO in terms of military power.

Is Turkey going to be welcomed to the European Union? This moment will definitely come, sooner or later, but one thing is certain: after Brexit, both UK and EU will become weaker than before and will look for fresh allies and partners.

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After Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel‘s formal endorsement of the deal, the text will get to the European Parliament on January 29 for ratification. The last step is to be taken next Thursday, when the diplomats from all the EU countries will sign the deal.

United Kingdom will have finally accomplished its goal of separating from the European Union, as their Brexit referendum results asked for. The will of the people prevailed in front of the rationality.

Who will gain and who will lose after Brexit? It appears that the United Kingdom economy already lost £66 billion because of Brexit, according to some sources. On top of that, the “divorce bill” will also cost around £39 billion, so altogether Brexit will cost British economy around 105 billion pounds.

On the other hand, the European Union will lose one of its strongest members and a very important contributor to the European budget. This is why some of the European officials are hurrying things up to bring Albania and Northern Macedonia in the family.

One thing is for certain now: with each step taken, we are closer to Brexit and on the 1st of February the United Kingdom will no longer be part of the European Union.

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The irony of it all is that these chimes will also mark the UK entrance in the Brexit year. By 31st of January 2020 UK will have already left the European Union if it’s to believe the determined the British PM Boris Johnson. Anyway, Brexit process entered its final phase and everybody agrees now there is no turning back.

Will it be better for the British? Will it be better for a European Union without United Kingdom? Will Scotland finally get its independence following a second referendum and apply for another European Union membership, this time as an independent state? Only time will tell, but it’s clear that both some of the British and most of the Europeans already feel sad about this “divorce”.

And, talking about divorce, as in real live, United Kingdom, which is the guilty spouse here (sorry for the comparison!), has to pay the divorce bill of EUR 45 billion or about 39 billion pounds. PM Boris Johnson said he would agree the payment in case of a Brexit deal and there are big chances for this to actually happen. That’s 39 billion pounds in addition to the 66 billion pound already lost by UK because of Brexit, according to some economic studies. That’s 105 billion pounds altogether, if the cost of Brexit won’t go higher than that in the following years.

In our opinion, UK has the resources to flourish in the years to come, but it’s a fact Brexit slowed down the economy so far and there are experts who think it will continue to do so in the first years after the separation from the European Union.

Hopefully, Big Ben will also salute some very prosperous, happy and politically peaceful years for the British people in the years to come!

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