Romania is the largest grain exporter in the European Union and the second largest producer, after France. The annual grain exports count for around USD 2.2 bil. and last year Romania exported around 12 million tons of cereals to other countries, mainly to Egypt.
This year the situation looks so much different. The drought which affects the whole Europe also hit Romania. The Romanian minister of Agriculture appreciated that the drought will make the crops diminish with 50%.
We estimate a loss of up to 50% of the grain production. The domestic consumption of wheat is around 2-3 million tons a year and around 7 million tons of corn. In the good years, Romania harvests 9 million tons of wheat and 14-15 million tons of corn. We estimate a loss of up to 50%, which means the domestic demand of cereals is still covered.Romanian minister of Agriculture for Romanian mass-media
If the minister was correct, this year, and roughly said, Romania will have available for exports only around 2 million tons of wheat and 1 million tons of corn. This counts for only 3 million tons.
This month Romania tried ban the grain exports but after pressures from the European Commission the governing party gave up and reviewed their initial decision.
The conclusion is very simple: this year there will definitely be a grain shortage on the European and international market and the prices will go up.