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May 22, 2024
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It Is NOT War (Yet)

Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday, April 13, made analysts think it’s another war starting in the Middle East. But, in our opinion, it is not yet a war but a massive drone attack.

Hundreds of drones and missiles attacked Israel for five hours straight. Still, the Iron Dome, the defence system of the IDF, helped by the US fighters in the area, successfully intercepted, destroyed and annihilated 99% of the drones, according to official communication. Only a few injuries were reported on the Israeli territory, but no deaths. Reports are yet to come, though.

Iran announced to the UN that it had stopped the attack, and that was it. They will refrain from further strikes if not provoked. Meanwhile, the US advised Israel not to retaliate to this attack, but Israel’s decisions are independent and sometimes unpredictable.

The risk of escalating the conflict is high. If Israel decides to retaliate after their War Cabinet meeting at 15:00 local time is over, then it will be a more significant conflict in the Middle East. If Israel decides to focus on the Gaza Strip, then this is only a massive drone and missile attack.

The conclusion is simple: Iran had to attack as a reply to Israel’s attack on their embassy in Damascus. It was mostly a display of Iran’s power in aerial attacks. Also, they had to show to their allies in the Middle East they had the power to attack Israel and to “punish” the aggressor without causing much harm, such as to avoid provoking Israel’s military power.

However, the Iranian kamikaze drones didn’t take a significant toll. A few injuries are reported, and that would be it—a good show for their citizens and allies in the Middle East, but not a military hit.

On the other hand, if Israel considered this as the beginning of a war with Iran, the officials wouldn’t have waited until 15:00 to meet and discuss what happened, let alone decide if they would retaliate or not. The war would’ve begun so far, and the world would have witnessed one of the greatest super-conflicts.

It is not yet the case, and this is not (yet) a war. The ball is in Israel’s court. Hopefully, a favourable decision for peace in the region will be taken.

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