Despite the very good evolution of the pandemic in Romania, with cases dropping each day, experts talk about the fourth wave of the pandemic in autumn.
The first public figure to talk about this scenario is a former councilor of the Minister of Health. He mentions as cause of the fourth wave the behavior of the people who would spend more time indoors and who won’t be so willing to vaccinate this summer.
This autumn, disregard what we do this summer, we’ll have a fourth wave, because this autumn the transmission rate will grow again, at the moment we re-enter our houses, we spend more time inside, in spaces which are not so well-ventilated as the outdoors. At that moment the number of cases in the ICU will start growing the enthusiasm for the vaccination and I think that by next spring we can get to the 70% vaccination rate.Razvan Chereches, expert in public health for Europa Fm
Chereches wasn’t the only one to talk about this. The Romanian expert to the World Health Organization, Professor Alexandru Rafila, talked about the fourth wave in autumn.
Even if we reach a 30-40% vaccination rate by autumn, it is possible to have a new wave, which I hope it would be smaller, but we cannot rule out any scenario, we cannot rule out mutations.Professor Alexandru Rafila, Romanian representative in the management board of WHO
Even the Romanian PM, Mr. Florin Citu, indirectly referred to the possibility of a fourth wave in Romania. He was not explicitly mentioned it, but, when talking about the party’s congress in late September, he said: “We’ll see when the party’s congress will be held and we’ll see if we’ll be able to hold the congress at that moment. It will all depend on how the pandemic evolves.”
Also, Mr. Florin Citu assured the people that Romania was ready for an increase of the cases by autumn.
Will Romania have the fourth wave of COVID-19?
The evolution of the second wave shows us a rapid increase in the daily number of cases starting precisely in September. It might be related to the behavior Mr. Chereches mentioned, with people more inclined to spend time indoors, in spaces that are not ventilated. On the other hand, the second wave of any pandemic is in most cases the strongest and this could be another cause of the drastic increase of the cases in last September.
Either way, it should be mentioned that the vaccination campaign in Romania is on a good track, even though the authorities started to put in lots of efforts to keep up the pace. That could lead to a vaccination rate of 40% by autumn, which, despite being far from the desired 70%, could hinder the spread of the new coronavirus among the population.
Yet, as we can see what is happening in the UK, the mutations cannot be ruled out from the equation, as professor Rafila mentioned. The new strings of the coronavirus seem to be more resistant to the vaccines available at the moment and this is one of the worst-case scenarios for the medical community. A fourth wave, this time stronger and mutation-related, could erase much of the efforts done so far and could require the development of new vaccines and new ways to stop the spreading of the disease.