A late January 2022 survey covering Romania, Poland, Finland, France, Germany, Italy and Sweden shows that most Europeans agree that Russia will likely invade Ukraine.
According to a poll conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations, 64% of Romanians and 73% of Polish consider that Ukraine should be helped “at all costs”.
Six out of seven surveyed countries consider that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia is highly possible
Six out of seven surveyed countries consider that the invasion of Ukraine by Russia is highly possible, and this scenario, if we are to believe the US secret services, is about to become a reality.
Most European citizens surveyed believe that NATO’s responsibility is to help Ukraine. Also, they think that a Russian threat to a neighbouring country threatens European order and peace.
Who should defend Ukraine if Russia invades?
The majority of the interviewed countries have confidence in NATO. Some respondents from Poland and Romania have more trust in Germany than in the US. In Romania, the question regarding who should come to Ukraine’s defence concluded 63% for NATO and 57% for the EU.
While most Europeans still trust NATO to defend Europe, NATO is not just another name for the United States. Europeans trust NATO to protect their interests more than they trust the United States to do so.European Council on Foreign Relations
On the other hand, the survey highlights that while most Europeans believe that Ukraine should be defended, not all of them are willing to help. 40% of Romanians and 65% of Poles would vote for their country to support Ukraine’s defence.
The study also revealed that Europeans are willing to incur major, perhaps long-term risks due to the EU’s Ukraine defence involvement. The possibility of huge numbers of refugees arriving, increasing energy costs, economic constraints, cyber threats, and the prospect of Russian military action are among the “acceptable” risks.
Poles, Romanians, and Swedes were more inclined to consider “supporting Ukraine worth the risk,” whilst individuals in France and Germany were the least willing to accept this, given the potential costs of support.
According to European Council on Foreign Relations researchers, there is not much truth in the cliché that Europeans believe war is inconceivable and that peace is self-evident; they see the world as being in conflict. Even though the great powerful countries of Europe wouldn’t assume the risk to intervene in a possible war with Russia, small countries like Romania that would come to Ukraine’s defence are once again to be in the middle of discord between East and West.