The meeting, hosted by Romania and co-chaired with Poland, takes place under the theme “Delivering More for Transatlantic Security.” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is attending the summit, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is also taking part as Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to dominate Europe’s security agenda.

Bucharest at the Centre of Eastern Flank Security

The summit brings Bucharest back to the centre of NATO’s strategic conversation at a moment when the Alliance is under pressure to strengthen deterrence, increase defence readiness and maintain long-term support for Ukraine.

The Bucharest Nine format was created in 2015 by Romania and Poland to coordinate the positions of NATO members located on the Alliance’s eastern flank. It includes Romania, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

This year’s meeting also includes participation from the Nordic countries, along with representatives of the United States and Ukraine, giving the summit a broader strategic significance than a strictly regional consultation.

Russia, Ukraine and the Black Sea on the Agenda

The main discussions focus on strengthening NATO’s presence across the eastern flank, improving military mobility and infrastructure, and ensuring that Ukraine continues to receive political, military and diplomatic support.

For Romania, the Black Sea dimension remains essential. The country is directly exposed to the security consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine, from regional military pressure to risks affecting maritime security, energy routes and wider stability in the region.

The summit includes a plenary session, a working lunch and a joint declaration, with leaders expected to underline that eastern flank security is no longer a peripheral issue for NATO, but a central pillar of the Alliance’s future defence posture.

Romania Reinforces Its Role Inside NATO

Romania is hosting the Bucharest Nine Summit at a moment when the country is trying to consolidate its role as one of NATO’s key political and strategic voices on the Alliance’s eastern border.

The meeting gives Bucharest an opportunity to project itself not only as a frontline state affected by the war in Ukraine, but also as a country actively involved in shaping the Alliance’s response.

In recent years, Romania has emphasised its role in Black Sea security, NATO infrastructure, regional defence coordination, and support for Ukraine and Moldova. The Cotroceni summit adds further weight to that positioning.

The Eastern Flank Is No Longer Peripheral

The wider message of the summit is that NATO’s strategic centre of gravity has shifted eastward. From the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, countries once treated mainly as the Alliance’s outer border are now central to discussions on deterrence, resilience and long-term European security.

For Bucharest, hosting the summit is therefore more than a diplomatic event. It is a signal that Romania wants to be treated as a core actor in Europe’s security architecture, especially as NATO adapts to a more unstable and militarised eastern neighbourhood.

The summit’s conclusions are expected to feed into the broader NATO agenda, including future decisions on defence spending, force posture, industrial capacity and long-term support for Ukraine.

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Whether the missiles hit their target is not the central issue. The issue is that a threshold was crossed. A capability was demonstrated. A message was sent. And that message was not aimed only at Washington, London, or military planners in the Gulf. It was aimed at everyone still pretending that distance is protection.

If Tehran can launch at roughly 4,000 kilometres today, only a fool would build policy on the assumption that 5,000 kilometres is somehow out of reach tomorrow.

Romania’s President Nicușor Dan chose reassurance over reality

This is what makes President Nicușor Dan’s recent declarations look less like calm leadership and more like strategic frivolity.

He said Romania was completely safe and under no direct threat. That kind of absolute language is politically convenient, but it is also dangerously fragile. It sounds firm for a news cycle, then collapses the moment reality outpaces the statement. And reality has moved fast.

The problem is not that a president should avoid panic. Of course, he should. The problem is that he chose the rhetoric of certainty in a security environment defined precisely by uncertainty. When missile range expands, when escalation spreads, and when European capitals are openly discussed within strike distance, the responsible language is caution, preparedness, and deterrence, not blanket comfort.

Romania is not outside the new threat range. But no other capital city is!

Romania cannot speak about itself as if it exists outside the strategic geometry of this war. It is a NATO state on the eastern flank. It hosts critical allied infrastructure, such as the infamous Deveselu rocket site. It matters militarily, geographically, and politically. That alone makes it relevant. Add the fact that Iran has now demonstrated a much longer reach than the one it spent years publicly normalising, and the old language of “no direct threat” begins to sound unserious.

No, that does not mean Romania is about to be hit tomorrow, despite Iran’s recent threats that it considers Romania an aggressor. It means Romania is no longer entitled to the fantasy that this is someone else’s problem.

NATO protection is real, but it is not magic

NATO is not a miracle shield that makes geography disappear, missiles vanish, or escalation politely stop at the Alliance’s frontier. It is a military deterrent structure, not divine intervention. If a longer-range strike ever pierced Europe’s defences, the first reality would not be communiqués or treaty language, but destroyed infrastructure, burning airports, shattered energy facilities, paralysed logistics, mass panic, and cities thrown into emergency mode within minutes.

Bucharest, Warsaw, Berlin, Paris or Rome would not look “safe” in that moment simply because they belong to NATO. They would look like modern capitals hit by the failure of deterrence. NATO can retaliate, contain, and raise the cost of aggression to catastrophic levels, but it does not mean that no missile can fly, no building can fall, and no civilian population can be forced to live through the first hours of devastation.

There is another lazy reflex in European political communication: invoking NATO as if the very mention of the Alliance eliminates danger. NATO matters. American presence matters. Missile defence matters. Collective defence matters. But deterrence is not the same as invulnerability.

A country can be defended and still be threatened. It can be under the NATO umbrella and still sit inside an adversary’s strike logic. Serious leaders understand this distinction. Weak leaders blur it because the second version is easier to sell domestically.

That is exactly why phrases like “Romania is safe” should be treated with scepticism when the actual strategic environment is deteriorating in real time.

Europe has run out of geographic excuses

The deeper issue is European complacency. For too long, Europe has behaved as if danger only becomes real when it arrives physically, visibly, and unmistakably on European soil. Until then, every escalation is treated as regional, external, manageable, somebody else’s problem.

That mentality is now collapsing. A 4,000-kilometre launch is not only a military event. It is a political event. It forces Europe to confront the shrinking distance between conflict zones and European vulnerability. It destroys the comforting fiction that the continent can remain merely an observer while the surrounding arc of instability expands.

No one in Europe is safe any longer in the old psychological sense of the word. That is the real shift.

The most dangerous lie is false certainty

The most irresponsible thing a European leader can offer at a moment like this is not caution. It is false certainty.

Citizens do not need theatrical panic. But they do need adult language. They need to hear that the world has changed, that security assumptions are being rewritten, and that comforting slogans are not a strategy.

Iran’s longer-range launch should be read as a warning shot to European political thinking as much as to military planners. And in that context, Nicușor Dan’s confident assurances already look obsolete.

Because once a regime demonstrates that Europe is within reach, the debate is no longer whether the continent is “safe.” The debate is whether its leaders are serious enough to admit that it is no longer.

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Purpose and Strategic Importance

Dacian Spring 2025 is designed to test and enhance the rapid deployment capabilities of NATO forces in the region. The primary objective is to develop and practice collective defensive operations, ensuring that participating forces can integrate seamlessly into a unified command and control structure. This exercise is particularly relevant in the current security environment in Eastern Europe, where the ability to respond swiftly to emerging threats is a top priority for the alliance.

The exercise will be led by the Multinational Division South-East (MND-SE) and will involve complex training scenarios across seven different military ranges in Romania. These activities will include tactical movements, live-fire drills, parachute jumps, river crossings, encrypted communications, and coordinating transit through various border checkpoints. Such comprehensive training is crucial for enhancing interoperability, reaction times, and military mobility among NATO allies.

French Leadership and Mobility Challenges

France, as the framework nation for the NATO Battle Group stationed at Cincu, will play a central role in Dacian Spring 2025. Around 4,000 French troops are expected to deploy with their equipment, underscoring France’s commitment to NATO’s collective defence. The French military aims to demonstrate its ability to move a combat brigade of 3,000 to 5,000 soldiers to Romania within ten days—a crucial capability in the event of a crisis.

A key challenge highlighted by French commanders is the need to improve military mobility across Europe. Unlike civilian travel, the movement of troops and heavy equipment across borders faces bureaucratic and logistical hurdles. The experience of previous deployments, particularly in 2022, revealed delays caused by customs procedures and inadequate transport infrastructure. Addressing these obstacles is a primary focus for both the exercise and broader NATO planning.

Dacian Spring 2025 is part of a wider series of multinational exercises taking place in Romania throughout the first half of the year. These include other major drills such as Dacia 25, Steadfast Dart 25, Sea Shield 25, and Saber Guardian 25. Collectively, these exercises will involve approximately 15,000 soldiers and are intended to strengthen cooperation within NATO and the Romanian-American Strategic Partnership.

The exercises serve as a strategic signal to potential adversaries, demonstrating the alliance’s unity, readiness, and ability to reinforce its eastern members rapidly. By 2027, NATO expects France to be capable of deploying a whole division, comprising up to 25,000 soldiers, within 30 days, further intensifying the stakes for military readiness and cooperation.

The timing of Dacian Spring 2025 has been influenced by Romania’s domestic political calendar, particularly the presidential elections. Adjustments to the exercise schedule have been made to accommodate these events, reflecting the need for flexibility in multinational military planning.

Dacian Spring 2025 stands as a pivotal exercise for NATO, Romania, and their allies, reinforcing the alliance’s commitment to collective defence and rapid response. The lessons learned from this exercise will shape future military mobility, interoperability, and readiness across Europe, ensuring that NATO remains prepared for any contingency on its eastern borders.

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The ongoing investigation highlights persistent challenges in maintaining transparency and integrity within Romania’s defence sector.

Located near Constanta, Romania, the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base has been a critical hub for NATO operations since 1999. It played a significant role during U.S. military operations in Iraq in 2003 and continues to be expanded as part of NATO’s efforts to strengthen its presence in Eastern Europe.

Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base plays a pivotal role in enhancing regional security but also faces challenges related to corruption investigations similar to those seen previously at other Romanian institutions involved with defence activities.

Current Investigation

The DNA and U.S. judicial authorities are probing allegations that a Greek citizen bribed foreign officials to secure fuel supply contracts worth millions of euros for his company. This case underscores broader concerns about corruption within defence procurement processes.

In the past, there have been reports of diesel theft from generators at the U.S. military section of the base, indicating systemic vulnerabilities that could facilitate corrupt practices.

Romania has recently faced numerous high-profile corruption cases, including the investigation of a high official in the Romanian Army, General Catalin Stefanita Zisu, who was, until his detention, the head of Romania’s Joint Logistic Command, wrote headlines in the local newspapers for the day. He was recently placed under legal control for abuse of office.

The investigation into alleged bribery at Mihail Kogalniceanu highlights specific challenges related to defence procurement and broader issues within Romania’s anti-corruption landscape. As one of Europe’s key military bases expands its capabilities, ensuring transparency will be crucial for maintaining public trust and international cooperation amidst geopolitical tensions with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

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I consider it completely inappropriate that the Hungarian Permanent Representative presents the National Atlas of Hungary to his colleagues at NATO in Brussels as a Christmas gift. We are analyzing its content in more detail, but it is extremely unusual that ambassadors of other countries to NATO are presented with a controversial atlas, in which, although Greater Hungary is not explicitly mentioned, the maps and accompanying texts are controversial. We are therefore discussing this unacceptable act with our colleagues from Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Because today’s geopolitically challenging times, full of security threats, require more dialogue and unity between European and transatlantic allies.

Gordan Grlić Radman

This atlas, which includes references to the historical concept of “Greater Hungary,” has drawn sharp criticism from Croatian officials and raised concerns among neighbouring countries, particularly Romania.

As it was later revealed, the Romanian official received the same gift but never made it public. The Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs formally protested the Hungarian Ministry on December 18. Still, it didn’t communicate it publicly until the Croatian minister chose to present the irredentist gesture of the Hungarian ambassador to NATO. This could mean that Romania considered the gesture a minor mistake from the Hungarian ambassador to NATO or that the Romanian officials didn’t want to upset their counterparts in Budapest.

One reason could be Hungary’s decisive help to Romania to enter the Schengen area in January 2025, a promise which Hungarians had made and kept to support Romania in its way to fully joining the free economic space.

On the other hand, the Hungarian minority party in Romania, UDMR, is now part of the ruling coalition in Romania. For the first time in history, the party’s representative entered the Supreme Council for National Defence – this could’ve influenced the Romanian officials’ decision to keep it away from the public’s eyes.

The Gift and Its Implications

The atlas, published in 2021 as part of the National Atlas of Hungary series, depicts the Carpathian Basin, extending beyond Hungary’s current borders. Grlić Radman expressed his discontent on social media, labelling the gift as “inappropriate” and noting that while the atlas does not explicitly mention “Greater Hungary,” it contains problematic maps and accompanying texts.

He emphasized that such gestures are unacceptable, especially in a contemporary European context where respect for internationally recognized borders is paramount.

In light of this incident, Grlić Radman said he would discuss the matter with his Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia counterparts. The Slovenian Foreign Ministry also weighed in, underscoring the importance of respecting agreed-upon borders and expressing concern over the historical narratives such gifts may evoke.

Romanian Disapproval

On December 18, 2024, the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a formal statement expressing disapproval of the atlas incident. The ministry condemned the gesture as undermining the spirit of cooperation essential within NATO and highlighted that actions perceived as promoting irredentism are unacceptable. This official response reflects Romania’s sensitivity to historical grievances related to territorial claims and its commitment to maintaining stable relations with its neighbours.

Still, the protest hadn’t been made public until the Slovenian minister published the irredentist gesture of a Hungarian official on X.

Historical Context and Reactions

The “Greater Hungary” concept refers to the territories that were part of Hungary before World War I, which now belong to several neighbouring countries, including Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine. This historical grievance has often been a source of tension between Hungary and its neighbours.

The current incident echoes previous controversies, such as when Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán was criticized for wearing a scarf depicting Greater Hungary at a football match.

Hungarian media outlets have reported on the incident with varying perspectives. Telex highlighted Grlić Radman’s remarks about the atlas being unusual as a diplomatic gift and noted discussions among regional politicians regarding its implications. Index.hu reported on the broader context of Hungarian nationalism and how such actions might affect regional diplomatic relations.

Broader Implications for Regional Relations

The atlas incident indicates ongoing sensitivities surrounding national identity and territorial claims in Central Europe.

As countries navigate their historical grievances while striving for cooperation within frameworks like NATO and the European Union, gestures like these can complicate diplomatic relations.

Slovenia’s Foreign Ministry emphasized the need for prudence in discussing historical borders and reiterated its commitment to building strong relations based on mutual respect with Hungary and neighbouring countries.

As discussions continue among Croatia, Romania, Slovenia, and Slovakia regarding this incident, the focus will likely remain on fostering dialogue while addressing underlying national identity and history tensions.

The controversy surrounding the Hungarian atlas serves as a reminder of the delicate balance in Central European politics, where historical narratives continue to shape contemporary diplomatic interactions. With Romania’s clear disapproval adding weight to regional concerns about irredentism, stakeholders must navigate these complexities carefully to maintain stability in their relationships.

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In a video released on September 29, 2024, while in a podcast at one of the Romanian sports magazines (Gazeta Sporturilor) Țiriac asserted that Romania does not need NATO or military bases, emphasizing instead the importance of investing in health care and education for the country.

He expressed that the focus should be on improving the well-being of Romanian citizens rather than on military expansion or alliances.

To my astonishment, (financing sports) it doesn’t cost, as the English say, an arm and a leg. Not! It costs much less than the military budget for a month. All sports! Not sports, but sports, education, health. I mean children, children. With that one-month budget…

I don’t want war, I don’t need NATO, I don’t need a military base, I don’t need anything. I need a healthy people.

And I don’t have it anymore because I don’t invest low, low, in seedlings. I don’t invest there. I want to raise the 500 sports kindergartens again; I would like to raise sports in the villages again if you want. Let something come to me, let something come to me as a number, to be able to choose too…

Ion Țiriac on NATO

His comments have generated intense reactions across various sectors of society, reflecting a divide in opinions about national security and priorities. Many have interpreted his remarks as challenging conventional views on defence and international alliances, particularly given Romania’s strategic position in Eastern Europe amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Yet, as a former sportsman and a man still close to sports, Ion Țiriac has all the reasons to consider sports before any other military objectives. He recently offered a car to all Romanians who won a medal at the Paris Olympics 2024, a gesture made by a former tennis glory who proved to love the sport more than any public authority or Government.

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More than 2,200 soldiers and 135 technical means (27 maritime and river vessels, 17 aircraft and 91 vehicles and boats) will train in the Black Sea, in the coastal area, on the river and in the Danube Delta for missions to combat activities illegal sea and river operations, maritime and river control, search and rescue at sea, assisting a vessel in distress and securing critical infrastructure.

The multinational exercise “Sea Shield 24” is the most complex event conducted by the Romanian Naval Forces through the “Vice Admiral Ioan Georgescu” Naval Component Command, in the training year 2024, and contributes to the promotion of Romania’s initiatives and interests on a regional and international level, such as and increasing the level of interoperability between participating forces. At the same time, the aim is to optimize the inter-institutional effort and synchronize planning cycles at the level of the Naval Forces in cooperation with the other categories of forces.

The first edition of the multinational exercise “Sea Shield” took place in 2015, and its scenarios were continuously adapted to respond quickly and effectively to the entire spectrum of threats to regional security and stability.

The exercise’s opening ceremony will be held on Monday, April 8, between 08.50 and 10.00, in the port of Constanța, at the Passenger Terminal, where the aim, objectives, participating forces and exercise methods will be presented.

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His announcement was immediately followed by an editorial in Politico named Romanian President: A Vision for NATO’s Future, a sign that the candidature had been prepared long before.

Even so, NATO’s pillar countries, namely the USA, the UK and France, didn’t react to his intention.

I undertake this candidacy on behalf of Romania with all responsibility, and this decision is based on Romania’s performance, the experience accumulated during the two mandates of Romania’s president, the deep understanding of the challenges faced by NATO, Europe, and especially our region, and my firm commitment to NATO’s core values and objectives.

Romania’s President Klaus Johannis on his candidacy to NATO’s highest position

The USA, Great Britain and France had announced that they support Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte for the post of NATO Secretary General. Still, Johannis plays his role in the regional context. Also, the Eastern European countries could support his candidacy.

Even though there won’t be voting inside the Alliance for the position that Secretary General Stoltenberg will leave this October, Johannis has some strong points here.

On the one hand, he’s Eastern European, so he has the support of Eastern European countries. On the other hand, he is German by ethnicity. Germany could support him, at least from this perspective, if not for the support Joahnnis offered to Germany during his presidential years.

Besides, Romania already has a high position at NATO – Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana; so a Romanian at the highest level in the Alliance is not unusual. Additionally, NATO’s Secretary General could come from a country neighbouring Ukraine, which could send a solid message from a regional security perspective.

The weaknesses here are apparent: his candidacy opposes a public opinion already assumed by the states mentioned above. Also, he’s not the best in communication or negotiations within the Alliance, and this was visible throughout his two mandates as Romania’s President. From this perspective alone, his candidacy announcement is at least unusual, but he’s got a pretty good chance of being supported and named Secretary General.

Klaus Iohannis, Romania’s right-wing President since December 2014, is a figure of stability and continuity in Romanian politics. Before ascending to the presidency, Iohannis served as the mayor of Sibiu, one of Romania’s most popular tourist destinations and a cultural hub.

Known for his calm demeanour and pragmatic approach to governance, Iohannis advocates for solid anti-corruption measures, judicial independence, and closer ties with the European Union and NATO.

A representative of the National Liberal Party, he is the first Romanian president of German ethnicity, symbolizing the country’s diverse cultural heritage and European aspirations.

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Macron had told reporters at a news conference that while he and the other 21 European leaders present disagreed on deploying military personnel, the prospect was discussed openly. “Nothing should be ruled out,” he said. “We will do anything we can to prevent Russia from winning this war,” cited by CNN.

Immediately, the EU leaders reacted. The first reaction came from the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz.

What was agreed upon among us and with each other from the very beginning also applies to the future, namely that there will be no ground troops or soldiers on Ukrainian soil sent there by European countries or NATO states.

Olaf Scholz on the possibility of NATO deploying ground troops to Ukraine

Many other countries, including the UK, Italy, Spain, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, reacted similarly and denied any possibility of sending ground troops to Ukraine.

Not only that but responding to Emmanuel Macron, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg denied that NATO countries were considering the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine amid the Russian invasion: “No plans for NATO combat troops on the ground in Ukraine,” he said.

The US replied to Macron’s statements as well. “President Joe Biden has been clear that the US will not send troops to fight in Ukraine,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said. Also, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller asked whether the United States could send troops for other purposes, such as training, and said the Biden administration opposed any deployment to Ukraine.

Yet, Macron’s statements still did something: they tested Russia’s reaction to such a scenario, and it was quick. They also tested NATO’s allies’ support for such a scenario, showing no consensus.

In conclusion to the events, NATO showed its limits – it’s mainly a political and only afterwards a military alliance. Politics has no single voice, and each member state can voice its opinions, precisely like in NATO.

And disregarding what some might expect from NATO, it will remain a democratic alliance where member states utter their opinion, vote and decide in the most democratic way possible.

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George Simion, the president of the other nationalist party, AUR, and Nicolae Ciucă, the president of the Romanian Liberals, follow in the intention of voting in the presidential elections, according to the latest poll conducted by INSCOP.

Interestingly, in the version in which the Pro Romania leader, former prime minister Victor Ponta, would also run, the percentages would decrease, especially for the PSD candidates, Marcel Ciolacu and AUR, George Simon.

Romanians are interested in voting, especially in a year with four rounds of elections. 9.8% of Romanians said that they would not go to vote, while 64.4% said that they would vote.

If presidential elections were held next Sunday, of the 80.2% of Romanians who have a clear voting option, 24.6% would choose Mircea Geoană (independent candidate), 15.1% would vote for Marcel Ciolacu (PSD), and 14.8% would vote for Diana Şoşoacă (from SOS Romania).

In the ranking follows Nicolae Ciucă (PNL), with 10.8%, Victor Ponta (Pro Romania), with 10.7% and George Simion (AUR), with 10.4%.

The ranking of voting options is completed by Cătălin Drula (from the USR party, the so-called Reformists), with 4.7%, Dacian Cioloş (REPER), with 4.1% and Kelemen Hunor (UDMR – Hungarian minority), with 3%. 1.7% of Romanians would choose another candidate.

Mircea Geoana is the famous loser in the 2009 Presidential Elections in Romania. He was announced as the winner at the exit polls, but until the morning, when votes were counted, he learnt he lost the elections by a solid margin to the right-wing candidate Traian Basescu. Fraud accusations were mentioned then, and Romanians believed that Geoana lost because of the political games and the Western powers’ interest in Romania, not because of the people’s votes. Therefore, there is the opinion that by voting for Geoana, you contribute to some moral repair for what happened in 2009.

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