Nicușor Dan Leads in Exit Polls as Both Candidates Claim Victory in Romania’s Tense Presidential Runoff

Romania’s presidential election runoff on May 18, 2025, has delivered high drama and uncertainty. Exit polls project independent centrist Nicușor Dan in the lead. At the same time, he and his hard-right rival, George Simion, have signalled victory in a contest that has polarised the nation.

Exit Polls Show Dan Ahead, But Official Results Awaited

According to exit polls conducted by major Romanian pollsters Avangarde and CURS, Nicușor Dan is projected to win with approximately 54–55% of the vote, while George Simion trails around 45–46%. This outcome, if confirmed, would mark a dramatic reversal from the first round, where Simion, leader of the nationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), held a commanding lead. The turnout was the highest in a quarter-century, with over 11 million Romanians casting ballots, about 64% of eligible voters.

Both Camps Claim Victory Amid Uncertainty

Despite the favourable exit polls for Dan, the atmosphere on election night remains tense and uncertain. Both candidates have made statements suggesting victory, reflecting the high stakes and deep polarisation of the electorate. Simion’s team has pointed to the large diaspora vote-which is not fully captured in exit polls and has historically leaned nationalist-as a potential game-changer that could still tip the balance.

Dan’s supporters, buoyed by the projections, have declared him the new president. Simion’s camp has raised concerns about the integrity of the process and hinted at possible challenges, including accusations of planned demonstrations in Victory Square. However, Dan has publicly stated that he will respect the result, whatever it may be, and distanced himself from any protests, emphasising that public gatherings are peaceful and organised by civic groups, not his campaign.

A Pivotal Election for Romania’s Future

This election is widely seen as the most consequential in Romania’s post-communist history, with the country’s orientation toward the European Union and NATO at stake. Dan, the incumbent mayor of Bucharest and a mathematician by training, has campaigned on a pro-EU, pro-NATO platform. Simion, by contrast, has positioned himself as a populist champion of Romanian sovereignty, sceptical of Brussels and Washington, and has drawn comparisons to other far-right leaders in Europe and the United States.

Aggressive rhetoric, social media battles, and concerns over foreign interference have marked the campaign. This backdrop has only heightened the sense of uncertainty as the official count continues.

What Happens Next

Romanians face a suspenseful wait with the official results yet to be announced and the diaspora vote still to be counted. The margin of error in exit polls and the unpredictable impact of overseas ballots mean that the outcome could still shift. Both sides are preparing for possible legal and political battles in the event of a disputed result.

As Romania stands at a crossroads, the coming hours will determine not just the identity of its next president, but also the direction of its democracy and its place in Europe.