Annual Inflation Rate in Romania: 15.32% in August

The annual inflation rate rose to 15.32% in August this year, from 14.96% in July, while the prices of food goods increased by 18.22%, and those of non-food goods were higher by 15.98%. Services were more expensive by 8.26%, according to data published on Monday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS), cited by AGEPRES.

Consumer prices in August 2022 compared to July 2022 increased by 0.6%. The inflation rate since the beginning of the year (August 2022 compared to December 2021) is 11.6%. The annual inflation rate in August 2022 compared with the month of August 2021 is 15.3%. The average rate of change in consumer prices in the last 12 months (September 2021 – August 2022) compared to the previous 12 months (September 2020 – August 2021) is 11.0%.

INS press release

According to INS data, the harmonized index of consumer prices in August 2022 compared to July 2022 is 100.44%.

The institution mentions that the annual inflation rate in August 2022 compared to August 2021 calculated based on the harmonized index of consumer prices (IAPC) is 13.3%. The average rate of change in consumer prices in the last 12 months (September 2021 – August 2022) compared to the previous 12 months (September 2020 – August 2021) determined based on the HIPC is 9.5%.

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) increased the inflation forecast for the end of this year to 13.9% and estimates inflation of 7.5% for the end of next year, according to the data presented in August by the governor of the BNR, Mugur Isărescu.

In May 2022, the BNR estimated inflation of 12.5% ​​for the end of this year and 6.7% for 2023.

According to the central bank, the annual rate of CPI inflation peaks during the third quarter, and from the fourth quarter, it is on a downward trajectory, under the assumption of the gradual de-tensioning of the wholesale energy and agri-food markets, as well as the gradual dissipation of syncopes in the global added value chains, but also as a result of some immediate effects, after the solid upward corrections of the energy price from 2021, before the implementation of the support schemes for domestic consumers.

The BNR expects a temporary interruption of the disinflationary trend in the second quarter of 2023 once the measures capping electricity and natural gas prices come into force.

At the forecast horizon, June 2024, the projected level is 2.3%, within the inflation target range, against the background of the manifestation of a substantial base effect.