The move comes only days after PSD withdrew from the governing coalition, leaving Bolojan’s cabinet without a parliamentary majority. The Social Democrats, previously part of the pro-European governing formula, are now preparing to vote alongside AUR, the main nationalist opposition force, in an attempt to bring down the Liberal prime minister.

PSD and AUR Move Together Against the Bolojan Government

The announcement was made by former PSD deputy prime minister Marian Neacșu and AUR representative Petrișor Peiu, confirming that the two parties are coordinating the parliamentary procedure against the government.

The no-confidence motion targets Ilie Bolojan’s cabinet after a period of mounting tension over budget cuts, public-sector reforms, and Romania’s obligations linked to European funding. PSD has accused Bolojan of pushing an austerity-driven agenda, while the prime minister has argued that reforms are necessary to keep Romania on track financially and to avoid losing access to major EU funds.

The political significance of the move is considerable. PSD had repeatedly rejected the idea of cooperation with AUR, but the decision to support a joint no-confidence motion has now placed the two parties on the same side of the most important parliamentary test facing the government.

Bolojan Refuses to Resign

Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan has refused to step down and has stated that he intends to continue leading the government, even without PSD’s support.

His position is that Romania cannot afford another prolonged institutional blockage while major reforms and European funding deadlines remain unresolved. The government is under pressure to meet commitments under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, while also dealing with a large budget deficit and concerns from financial markets.

Bolojan’s Liberal Party has reacted sharply to the PSD-AUR move, framing it as proof of a new political alignment between the Social Democrats and the nationalist opposition. Liberal representatives have also warned that if PSD votes to bring down the cabinet together with AUR, future cooperation between PNL and PSD becomes politically untenable.

The Vote Could Be Extremely Tight

PSD and AUR together do not automatically have enough votes to dismiss the government. A successful no-confidence motion requires 233 votes in Parliament.

Together, the two parties are reported to control around 220 seats, meaning they would still need additional support from smaller groups, unaffiliated MPs or other opposition forces. This makes the next days critical, as negotiations and pressure on individual parliamentarians are likely to intensify.

If the motion passes, the Bolojan government falls. If it fails, the prime minister remains in office, but still leads a fragile minority cabinet exposed to repeated parliamentary attacks.

Romania Faces a Wider Political and Economic Risk

The crisis is not only a domestic power struggle. Romania is already under pressure because of its large deficit, reform commitments and dependence on EU funding. A government collapse at this point would deepen uncertainty over fiscal policy, public-sector restructuring, and the country’s ability to meet European deadlines.

The political timing is also sensitive. The coalition led by Bolojan had been built as a pro-European governing arrangement meant to contain the rise of nationalist forces. PSD’s decision to support a motion alongside AUR now shifts the balance of power and gives the nationalist opposition a central role in Romania’s immediate political future.

PSD Denies a Governing Deal With AUR

PSD representatives have tried to separate the no-confidence motion from the idea of a formal governing alliance with AUR. The party’s leadership has suggested that supporting the dismissal of Bolojan does not automatically mean entering a post-motion political agreement with the nationalist party.

However, the distinction may be difficult to defend politically. A joint vote to remove the government is, in practice, a coordinated parliamentary action with immediate consequences for the country’s executive power. For PNL, this is already enough to claim that PSD has crossed a line it previously said it would not cross.

What Happens Next

The next step is the formal filing of the no-confidence motion, followed by parliamentary procedure and a vote. The vote could take place quickly, potentially in early May, depending on how fast the signatures and procedural steps are completed.

If the motion succeeds, President Nicușor Dan would have to begin consultations to form a new government. That could lead to another attempt at a pro-European majority, a minority cabinet, or an even deeper political deadlock if parties fail to agree on a viable formula.

For now, Romania has a prime minister refusing to resign, a former coalition partner preparing to vote against him, and a nationalist opposition suddenly placed at the centre of the parliamentary arithmetic. The Bolojan government may survive the motion, but the political coalition that brought it to power has already collapsed.

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Timeline of Events

PSD first signalled its discontent by withdrawing political support for PNL leader Ilie Bolojan, citing unmet expectations in economic measures. By now, seven PSD officials—including the deputy prime minister and six ministers—have submitted resignations, stripping the coalition of its parliamentary majority. Bolojan has vowed to lead a minority government, pledging to secure EU funds through ongoing reforms.

Long-simmering tensions within the pro-European coalition boiled over due to disputes over fiscal policies and reform priorities. PSD criticised Bolojan’s administration for failing to deliver results, viewing it as prioritising PNL agendas over broader coalition goals. Deeper issues include resistance to reforms that threaten PSD interests, such as those tied to EU recovery funds, amid months of internal coalition friction.

Potential Impacts

The crisis risks elevating Romania’s already high regional borrowing costs, straining credit ratings, and jeopardising around €11 billion in EU funding if reform milestones are missed. Economists warn of market instability and a possible Greek-style scenario if the issue is not resolved quickly, though rapid political manoeuvring could mitigate the fallout. Socially, it heightens uncertainty ahead of key economic challenges.

The President has initiated consultations, opening the way for a minority PNL-led government backed by USR and UDMR, or for renegotiated coalitions. PSD and opposition AUR may push no-confidence motions, potentially triggering early elections or prolonged deadlock. Bolojan’s determination to stay suggests short-term stability efforts, but PSD’s firm opposition signals challenges ahead.

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Collapse of the Ruling Coalition and Loss of Legitimacy

The governing coalition, a broad alliance including Ciolacu’s Social Democratic Party (PSD), the National Liberal Party (PNL), and the Hungarian minority party UDMR/RMDSZ, suffered a historic defeat. Antonescu secured only about 20% of the vote, trailing far behind nationalist candidate George Simion, who won nearly 41%, and independent Nicușor Dan, who narrowly qualified for the runoff with just under 21%.

Ciolacu declared that the coalition “has no legitimacy, at least in this formula,” and proposed that his party withdraw from government, implicitly leading to his resignation as prime minister. PSD ministers followed suit, resigning from their posts and leaving the government without a stable majority.

Rise of the Far-Right and Political Uncertainty

George Simion’s far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) won in the first round, reflecting widespread voter dissatisfaction with the political establishment and economic challenges. Simion, a vocal critic of the European Union and admirer of former US President Donald Trump, has accused Brussels of meddling in Romanian affairs and has promised to shake up the country’s political landscape.

The runoff election on May 18 will pit Simion against Nicușor Dan, a pro-European independent, in a race that could dramatically reshape Romania’s domestic and foreign policies. A Simion victory risks shifting Romania toward euroscepticism and nationalism, potentially straining its critical role within the EU and NATO, especially amid ongoing regional tensions related to the war in Ukraine.

Interim Leadership and Uncertain Governance

With Ciolacu’s resignation, Romania currently has no permanent prime minister. Ilie Bolojan has assumed the role of interim president, and PSD ministers remain in caretaker roles for up to 45 days while coalition partners negotiate the government’s future. There are no immediate plans for early parliamentary elections, but political analysts warn that the current government’s survival is precarious.

The crisis follows a turbulent election cycle, including the annulment of December 2024’s presidential vote due to allegations of Russian interference and irregularities favouring another far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu. Protests and political unrest have marked the months leading to the May rerun, underscoring deep divisions within Romanian society.

Romania faces an unprecedented political impasse with an interim president, no prime minister, and a fractured ruling coalition that has lost popular support. The upcoming presidential runoff will be decisive for the country’s leadership and its direction on the European and global stage. Political instability risks complicating Romania’s economic recovery and its strategic role in Eastern Europe during heightened geopolitical tensions.

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Liberals’ Announcement

In a video posted on social media, Ciuca declared that the coalition has reached its political conclusion. He cited a recent Constitutional Court ruling that disqualified a far-right candidate as a primary concern, describing it as a significant threat to democracy in Romania. Despite the coalition’s dissolution, Ciuca affirmed that PNL would remain in government to prevent what he termed “abuses” by the PSD, arguing that stepping back would be irresponsible.

His remarks reflect deep frustrations with the PSD’s handling of critical issues and highlight the growing divisions between the two parties as they approach crucial elections scheduled for November and December.

Yet, the last straw that broke the Coalition’s back was when Ciuca highlighted a recent ruling by the Constitutional Court that disqualified far-right candidate Diana Șoșoacă from the presidential race, which he described as a politically motivated act that raises questions about the integrity of Romania’s democratic processes. Ciuca asserted that this ruling, made by a majority of judges appointed by PSD, effectively eliminated a political adversary and demonstrated what he termed an “abuse of power” inherent in the PSD’s governance style. He emphasized that such actions could lead to further political repression, warning that if left unchecked, PSD could undermine democratic institutions and media freedoms.

Socialists’ Response

In response to Ciuca’s announcement, PSD leader Marcel Ciolacu issued an official statement urging PNL to reconsider its decision. He emphasized the need for responsibility and dialogue, suggesting that PNL should return to the negotiation table to address their differences constructively. Ciolacu criticized Ciuca’s approach, warning that abandoning the coalition could lead to instability in governance at a critical time for the country. He underscored the importance of collaboration in tackling national challenges and maintaining a united front against extremist parties.

Implications for Future Governance

The dissolution of this coalition raises questions about legislative stability in Romania as both parties navigate a precarious political landscape ahead of upcoming elections. With both Ciuca and Ciolacu running for president in this electoral cycle, the dynamics between PNL and PSD will be closely watched as they seek to appeal to voters while managing their internal conflicts.

As Romania moves forward into this uncertain political climate, the calls for dialogue and responsibility from both sides highlight the complexities of governance in a divided political landscape. The coming weeks will be crucial as both parties attempt to define their paths amidst growing electoral pressures.

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Also, they decided to collate the Europarliamentary with the local elections.

AUR, the nationalist party led by George Simion, is the main target for both Socialists and Liberals during the Europarliamentary elections in June. AUR’s growth in popularity, based on lots of votes from the Romanians living abroad, could mean that the Euro skeptics could win more seats and create a more prominent political group.

The leaders of the two ruling parties, Marcel Ciolacu and Nicolae Ciuca, mentioned stability as the base of this political construction. The country needs stability; therefore, the two parties want to offer a stable political alliance. They also justified their decision to collate the local and the Europarliamentary elections with an opinion poll, supposedly conducted a day before the decision, whose results say Romanians want collated elections.

On the other hand, the Opposition parties denounce the Alliance as a blow to democracy and an attempt to confiscate the country’s ruling for the years to come.

National and European watchdogs are expected to say if the local and the Europarliamentary elections can be collated in Romania. Suppose these institutions give the green light to this initiative. In that case, there will be a complicated voting system in June, which will only add to the complicated political situation.

Strong opinions are saying that both Socialists and Liberals will lose crucial percentages, and they won’t be able to reach the desired 50% at the ballots. Currently, adding both parties’ voting intention, the math is under 50%, with the Socialists counting for 29.5 and Liberals for 18.8. Yet, with 18.4%, AUR is close behind the Liberals, and these percentages are in a predictable dynamic – the current ruling Coalition, especially after the alliance, is to lose some votes. At the same time, the Opposition, which includes the USR and the so-called Reformists, might win significant percentages in voting intention.

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Not only that, but this weekend occurred two significant events which could make AUR grow exponentially. The first one is the presence of Hungary’s PM Viktor Orban in Romania, where his speech attacked Romania and upset lots of people. Orban mocked the Romanian authorities, telling the Hungarian minority gathered at Baile Tusnad, at the Summer University, that the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs tried to impose on him what to tell and what to avoid during his speech. Among others, he stated, to the delight of the Hungarians present, that he had never said that Transylvania belonged to Romania. This controversial statement fuels Romanian people’s desire to vote for nationalist parties like AUR.

The second event is AUR’s launching of its candidates for the Europarliamentary elections 2024. Among them, there are famous people, but also current MEPs.

The same opinion poll shows that the coalition parties PSD – the Socialists, and PNL – the Liberals, lost people’s trust. The Socialists stayed at 31% voting intention, while the Liberals dropped to 18% from 20% in May.

Here is an explanation: the Liberals had the Prime Minister position within the coalition’s algorithm for a year and a half, and the Socialists have just taken the position. So, the tendency could reverse, with the Socialists dropping in voting intention, while Liberals could slightly grow.

Nationalism on the rise tendency is present in Europe, not only in Romania, and we see the far right growing in France, Germany and Italy.

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The agreement was that Nicolae Ciuca, the current Prime Minister, is to rule the Government until May 25th, when he would resign and let his Socialist colleague, the head of the Social Democratic Party, Marcel Ciolacu, be assigned as Prime Minister until the end of the current political mandate of the Parliament. This agreement is broken, as Ciuca decided not to resign.

The presidents of the three ruling parties appeared on national tv stations assuming this postponement in rotation. Marcel Ciolacu, who was expected to be Prime Minister this month, has to wait until the teachers’ strike is over. It could be weeks or months.

Nicolae Ciuca has his second questionable political moment. His first was precisely when he entered politics. As a former Chief of Army Staff, Ciuca promised not to enter politics when he retired. He failed to keep his promise and joined the National Liberal Party. Soon after, he became president of the Liberals and Prime Minister. Such a brilliant political career, right? Wrong, as political pundits say, Cuca is Romania’s President’s political puppet.

His second questionable moment was when he failed to keep his promise and resigned from office. Both moments show how much trust you can have in hearing a promise from him.

On the other hand, Marcel Ciolacu seems like a Socialist who dances when Liberals play a piece of specific music. Far from showing the same solid political posture of the former Socialist leaders, Ciolacu gave up any form of criticism of decisions taken by Liberals and preferred to remain silent but in power.

No solid opposition in Romania makes all these possible. The current Governing Coalition will keep power until 2024; no other alliances can oppose them until the next elections. In this context, Romania seems like a stable democracy from the outside, but people started noticing it’s far from that.

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PSD leader Marcel Ciolacu sent a clear message to the National Liberal Party leader, Florin Citu: if the coalition between PSD and PNL breaks, Romania will have early elections. This happens in the context of strong disagreement between the two parties following the increasing energy costs.

I inform him (Ed. Florin Citu) that if the PSD leaves the Government, we will have early elections

Marcel Ciolacu, PSD leader

In an interview offered to a local TV station, Social Democratic Party president Marcel Ciolacu highlighted the relationship between the two ruling parties. The disorder inside the coalition PSD-PNL reflects different conceptions and approaches in governing the country.

There are three years left until the elections, and we have come to power to help and bring coherence. We have brought stability, a majority, and we should use this.

Marcel Ciolacu, PSD leader

PSD leader also mentioned that the coalition is facing other problems, and the PNL leader should recognize that if PSD hadn’t been governing, Romania would’ve looked a lot worse than today.

If the ruling coalition breaks up, Romania will have to face a period of political instability amid one of the worse crises it’s have ever been through. There will be a couple of months until the elections, and no assumed political leader can afford that, let alone the Romanian people.

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According to the poll results conducted by INSCOP, the situation looks like this:

• PSD (the Socialists): 34.4%
• AUR (the Nationalists): 20.6%
• PNL (the Liberals): 16.6%
• USR (the Reformists): 12.5%

An explanation for the rise of the Nationalists is how the Romanian Government handled the vaccination campaigns and restrictions. Romania is where some of the most rigid restrictions infuriated the population and increased the resistance against the pro-vaccination movements.

In March 2020, the Government considered properly taking out the militaries with armoured vehicles and machine guns on the streets as a deterrent to keep the population inside. At that moment, there were barely 100 cases of infections a day. With 30,000 daily cases, the same Government, formed by the Socialists and the Liberals, hesitate to take drastic measures.

The fear of not offering AUR a boost in the polls is also behind the decision to postpone the implementation of the so-called green pass in Romania. In December, on the 21st, AUR called protesters in Bucharest, in front of the Parliament, broke through the large gates, jumped over the fence and reached the steps of the building. The protest wanted to prevent the MPs from adopting the green pass in the country. Successfully, we might add.

AUR members are portrayed as anti-European, but their public actions and speeches are rather nationalist than anti-European. Meanwhile, both the Socialists and the Liberals adopted vital pro-European and pro-NATO speeches regarding vaccination and European policies.

It’s not the merit of AUR but rather the mistakes of the parties in power in Romania. The Socialists and the Liberals must understand that politics is not only about obeying orders coming from Brussels. Listening to your own people is an essential quality in democracy; it’s not populism. This is what AUR does. This is how the Nationalists have grown so far.

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The death of its leader, Corneliu Vadim Tudor, in 2015 made it even more complicated for the party to enter the Romanian Parliament again. This seemed to be the end of the nationalist movement in Romania.

The rest of the parties were so content about the failure of the nationalist to pass the required 5% to enter Parliament that they were constantly bragging about that, telling the Europeans that Romania doesn’t have any nationalist political formation in Parliament. The Romanian Socialists or the Liberals were quite convinced that this could make the Europeans start showing Romania a bit of respect.

However, it was not the case, as the Europeans had nationalist movements at home. Having or not having a nationalist movement in your backyard doesn’t mean anything. One country is not more or less civilized if it has a nationalist movement. It’s just the opinion of the voters, and every vote counts and has to be respected.

Now the situation is quite different. Another nationalist movement, more visible, action prone, and created on the same principles, is rising: AUR – the Alliance for the Unification of All Romanians. While PRM took its name from the Romanian territories’ unification, AUR means almost the same.

AUR succeeded in getting 9% of the votes during the last elections. It was enough to ensure they entered the Parliament. There was a shock for the Socialists and the Liberals at that moment. Now the surprise is even more significant.

After two years in the pandemic, with a growing pool of anti-European feelings, AUR has got to 17% voting intention with an increasing collection of anti-European emotions. From now on, the sky is the limit for the nationalists.

While the Socialists from PSD – Social Democratic Party dropped one point, the Liberals from PNL – National Liberal Party climbed one in the voting intention. Meanwhile, AUR reached 17%.

The rising of the nationalist movement happened in a context when this political formation behaved as the single one in the Opposition. This, of course, includes the latest protests at the Parliament, where people manifested against restrictions.

By taking the side of the majority of Romanians, fighting against restrictions, by manifesting against the abuses of the authorities, AUR leaders know they could go further, above 20%. This is when the party will play a significant role in Romania’s political and social life.

Along with this, we can expect two central ideas to be approached: the concept of the unification between the two sister countries, Romania and the Republic of Moldova, and the idea of opposing the autocracy of the European institutions. Euroskepticism will grow, and the thought of getting the country out of the European Union will increase awareness.

Does the European Union think Poland and Hungary pose a risk to the Union when discussing abandoning the European project? Wait and see what will happen in a year or so when AUR and the other parties will enter the pre-election year!

You might also be interested in reading the opinion poll in July 2023, which places AUR second in Romania.

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