Current Flood Situation on the Danube

The Danube has already overflowed its banks in Hungary, leading to severe flooding in Budapest and surrounding areas. The city’s mayor, Gergely Karácsony, has warned that “the biggest flood in the last decade” is imminent, with water levels expected to peak at around 8,700 m3 per second on September 22.

In preparation, temporary dikes have been installed along nearly 1,200 kilometres of rivers, and thousands of soldiers and volunteers are actively participating in flood defence efforts.

The Hungarian government has raised the flood alert level to the highest degree, mobilizing military personnel and emergency services to assist in protective measures. Streets near the Danube have been closed, and residents in vulnerable areas are being evacuated as a precautionary measure.

Impact on Romania

Romanian authorities also prepare for rising water levels as the flood wave moves downstream. Environment Minister Mircea Fechet stated that the flow entering Romania at Baziaș could peak at approximately 9,200 to 9,500 cubic meters per second by September 28 or 29. This is significantly higher than historical averages and poses a severe risk to communities along the river. The Danube River crosses ten countries, with Romania hosting the most extended section at 1,075 kilometres. The most vulnerable areas include towns in the Danube Delta, where local officials are already familiar with flood risks but remain on high alert due to the severity of this situation.

This anticipated flooding follows a series of extreme weather events across Central Europe, exacerbated by climate change. The region has experienced some of its worst flooding in decades due to heavy rains associated with Storm Boris, which has affected multiple countries, including Austria and Poland. Reports indicate that at least 23 people have died across Central Europe due to flooding-related incidents.

Historically, Romania has faced severe flooding challenges. In 2006, extreme floods resulted in significant damage and loss of life. The current situation raises concerns about potential breaches in dykes and inadequate flood management strategies that have been criticized for their ineffectiveness against such natural disasters.

As communities brace for what could be one of the worst flooding events in recent history, both Hungary and Romania are implementing emergency measures to mitigate damage and protect residents. The situation remains fluid as authorities monitor water levels and prepare for possible evacuations. With climate change contributing to more frequent and intense weather events, regional governments must adopt integrated flood management strategies prioritising natural floodplain restoration alongside traditional infrastructure solutions.

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The Romanian Ministry of Transport, Sorin Grindeanu, announced this on Thursday, February 23, on his Facebook account.

We are ready! Three ships of AFDJ Galati – equipped with equipment for measuring the depth of navigable channels – are waiting for acceptance to make measurements on the Bystroye Canal.

Romanian Ministry of Transport, Sorin Grindeanu, on preparing ships to measure the depth of the Bystroye Canal

The context of this announcement is diplomatically complicated. Ukraine has announced it has achieved a depth of almost 7 meters on Bystroye after dredging works, which is against international agreements and bilateral relations between Romania and Ukraine. Also, as experts say, this endangers the existence of the Danube Delta itself.

When facing the accusations, Ukraine retaliated and said Romania entered the Russian rhetoric, which fueled Kremlin’s propaganda. More than that, Klaus Johannis, Romania’s President, asked the Romanian politicians to be silent on this theme, as, in his opinion, Ukraine needs help, not scolding.

Unfortunately for Johannis, his influence in the country is fading as his second mandate ends in 2024. The question remains: will Ukraine let the Romanian ships measure the depth of the Bystroye Canal, or they’ll invoke the war conditions and forbid the entrance?

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We remind our readers that Ukraine started dredging the Bystroye canal as early as December or January. In February, the Romanian minister of Transport publicly revealed this situation and asked all the competent Romanian authorities, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to take action.

There is forbidden by national and international laws for the Ukrainian part to work on that canal, as it endangers the whole ecosystem of the Danube Delta. Evidence shows that Ukraine wants to make the canal navigable for purely economic purposes.

The reply of the Ukrainian Embassy to Romania: DO NOT FUEL RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA!

Ukraine says Romania fuels Russian propaganda when escalating the Bystroye Canal issue to the European authorities. In a public press release of the Ukrainian Embassy in Bucharest, they accuse Romania and say that the works on the canal are only to “maintain it”.

Based on the information circulated in the Romanian media regarding the execution by the Ukrainian side of operational dredging works on the Danube, we consider it necessary to make the following clarifications: All dredging works on the Danube, currently carried out by the Ukrainian side, which are executed exclusively within the state border of Ukraine, are of a current operational nature and are aimed exclusively at the maintenance of the waterway, such as ensuring the safety of navigation by maintaining the current technical characteristics, as well as eliminating the consequences of natural clogging. As a result of significant natural clogging, operational dredging works on the navigable sea channel have been carried out permanently for several years in the specified and agreed areas per the norms of Ukrainian legislation, international agreements and conventions. In August 2022, the Ukrainian side informed the Lower Danube River Administration about the planned works. Suppose the Ukrainian side plans to implement significant projects different from the current operational ones, the Romanian side will be informed in advance, and their agreement will follow the legislation in force, international agreements and conventions. In Russia’s ongoing brutal war against Ukraine, we express Romania’s gratitude for its firm solidarity with the Ukrainian people and urge the responsible advancement of public information not to harm bilateral relations and not to fuel Russian propaganda.

Ukrainian Embassy in Romania accusing Romania of fueling Russian propaganda on Bystroye Canal problem

A few ideas stick out from this blunt reply of the Ukrainian “diplomacy”:

• It’s not dredging, it’s maintaining. Yet, the Bystroye canal became navigable by a miracle
• Romania should not harm the bilateral relations by talking about this issue publicly
• Romania is fueling Russian propaganda when escalating the issue to the European and international level

Apart from these, there is one more: the Ukrainian part says that, come what may, they will do what they want either way, including significant projects on Bystroye Canal. It’s in their answer if you pay close attention to the meaning of their words. In this case, they will inform the Romanian party in advance. If this is diplomacy, we all don’t fully comprehend the real meaning of this word.

Unfortunately for Romania, this is the war logic the Ukrainians currently use in bilateral relations. Everything said against them fuels Russian propaganda, let alone that they will do anything they want, as they are only defending their country. And if their country’s defence needs to destroy the Sulina Canal, the Danube Delta or the whole neighbouring countries by dragging them into war, it’s not their fault, it’s the Russians because they attacked first.

Bystroye Canal is a lost cause for Romania if we are to judge Romania’s chances by the way its Ministry of Foreign Affairs acts to solve this problem. Besides, what European or international institutions are concerned about this when their primary concern these days is how to send weapons to Ukraine more quickly?

The dredging works at the Bystroye Canal will make the Sulina Canal not navigable. Bystroye will also endanger hundreds of species of wild fauna in the Danube Delta, destroy the local economy, and create another regional catastrophe. Yet, who cares? No one should talk about this, or it will be labelled as Russian propaganda by Ukrainian “diplomacy”.

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Bystroye Canal is not to be used for transport, but Ukraine is not at its first attempt to make it a navigable canal. Though on Ukrainian territory, the Bystroye canal endangers the Danube Delta’s whole ecosystem if enlarged. Danube Delta is home to more than 320 species of birds and mammals, on most of its surface, on Romanian territory. Precisely, 3,446 km² of the Danube Delta are in Romania, and it grows each year by the alluvium the Danube brings along.

This is the context of the accusations from Romanian authorities, who told the press that recent information shows the Ukrainian part started dredging the Bystroye Canal.

There are signals that, at this moment, there are dredging works on Bystroye, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of the Environment must come up with a firm statement and report on the developments.

Romanian Ministry of Transport, Sorin Grindeanu on the works of the Ukrainians on Bystroye Canal

Diplomacy seems not to work in this case, though. The Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs offered no reaction to the accusations of the Governmental official. On the other hand, the war with Russia is the perfect pretext for the Ukrainians to justify any course of action and to start dredging the Bystroye Canal, presumably to help their crippled economy.

The dormant conflicts between Romania and Ukraine

This is not the only dormant conflict between Romania and Ukraine. Although Romania helped Ukraine in the conflict, there had been a series of dormant conflicts between the two parts, even before the war began. One of them was for Snake Island, or better said, for the continental plateau of Snake Island. The significant natural resources made this the subject of a dispute, and solution in the Hague, at the International Court of Justice. Snake Island remained Ukrainian, but Romania acquired almost 80% of its continental plateau.

Another conflict is the right of the Romanian minorities living in the South of Ukraine. A former Romanian territory confiscated by the Soviet Union, Northern Bukovina and Hertza Region is home to a Romanian minority whose rights are systematically violated. The diplomatic protest of the Romanian authorities against the minority law in Ukraine had no success, and Zelensky is more concerned about the course of the conflict than about the Romanian minority in Ukraine.

The third and most recent conflict is for cereals. The solidarity with the Ukrainian people seriously hit the Romanian and Polish agriculturers, as the Ukrainian cereals cost 20% less than the Polish ones, for example. The problem is not only the cost but also the fact that the Ukrainian producers have no respect for European laws. Herbicides, insecticides and other chemicals detected in the Ukrainian cereals could threaten European consumers, but the solidarity with the Ukrainian people seems to justify anything.

A reaction from the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is expected in this case, but this institution is infamous for very late reactions and poor results. Their latest failure regards Schengen accession, as Romania has been outside the free economic area for many years. Chances are that Romanian diplomacy does very little or nothing in this case for fear they might upset the European Commission or the allied forces supporting Ukraine.

One thing is sure, as we mentioned in a previous post: Zelensky started losing its popularity in Romania, even though Romanians still support Ukraine in its conflict with the Russian Army. The Romanian minority rights in Ukraine, the Bystroye Canal dredging, the attempts of the Ukrainian officials to involve Romania in the war, the cereal problems and all these latent conflicts erode the trust of the Romanian people in the good intentions of the Ukrainians when relating to Romania.

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