The BET index, the main benchmark of the Bucharest Stock Exchange, opened Friday’s trading session at a new intra-day record of around 29,617 points, slightly above the previous high reached in February. The move came after a strong five-day advance of more than 4.7%, confirming that investors are still buying Romanian listed companies despite the turbulence around them.

The paradox is obvious. The leu is under pressure. Romania’s political scene is unstable. Bond yields remain high. The fiscal deficit continues to worry investors. Yet the stock market is climbing.

This is not just a market story. It is a much deeper Romanian story.

The Market Is Rising While the State Looks Weak

The first explanation is simple: the stock exchange is not the Romanian state. It is not Parliament, not the Government and not the bureaucracy that investors often associate with unpredictability. The BET index is built around companies that generate cash, pay dividends and, in many cases, operate in sectors with strategic importance: banking, energy, utilities, gas, electricity and infrastructure.

That is why the market can rise even when the political context deteriorates.

Banca Transilvania remains the most important company in the BET index, followed by heavyweights such as OMV Petrom, Romgaz, Hidroelectrica and Transgaz. These are not speculative names. They are companies tied to Romania’s financial system, energy production, natural gas, electricity and national infrastructure.

In other words, investors are not necessarily betting on Romanian politics. They are betting on Romanian assets. And that distinction matters.

The OMV Petrom Paradox

The “wow” part of this story is not only that the Bucharest Stock Exchange is at a record high, but also that it is at a record high. It is one of the major forces behind Romania’s market value, which is still OMV Petrom, a company that remains deeply Romanian in its assets, operations and economic importance, but is majority controlled by Austria’s OMV.

OMV holds just over 51% of OMV Petrom, while the Romanian state holds a little over 20%. Romanian pension funds, local investors and other Romanian entities also hold significant stakes, but strategic control is not in Bucharest.

This is the uncomfortable contradiction: Romania’s stock market celebrates the value created by companies tied to national resources, while the country still bears the consequences of past decisions that moved key strategic assets outside majority Romanian control.

Petrom is still central to Romania’s economy. It is listed in Bucharest. It pays taxes in Romania. It is a major energy player. But the controlling shareholder is not the Romanian state.

That makes the current stock market rally politically sensitive. The BET index is not only a financial chart. It is also a mirror of Romania’s economic model: valuable assets, strong companies, high dividends, but often limited national control.

Why Investors Are Still Buying

There are several reasons why the BET index can, at least temporarily, ignore the depreciation of the leu and the political noise.

First, many Romanian listed companies are dividend-driven. Investors are attracted to cash distributions, especially in a high-inflation, high-interest-rate environment. Energy companies, utilities and banks can remain attractive even when the broader macroeconomic picture is unstable.

Second, the fall of the leu can have mixed effects. It hurts importers and can feed inflation, but some companies with export exposure or revenues linked to international prices may be partially protected. The impact is not uniform across the market.

Third, institutional investors may view Romanian equities as relatively cheap compared with other markets, especially when measured by dividend yields and earnings. In a region where uncertainty is no longer exceptional, Romania still offers listed companies with strong balance sheets and exposure to infrastructure, energy and banking.

Fourth, the political crisis may already be priced differently in equities than in the currency market. The leu reacts directly to confidence, capital flows and central bank policy. The stock market reacts to company earnings, dividends and sector expectations.

That is why the currency can fall while the equity market rises.

Premier Energy, Romgaz and Electrica Push the Index Higher

The latest rally has been driven by strong performances from several energy-related names. Premier Energy, Romgaz and Electrica were among the strongest performers of the week, with some reporting double-digit gains.

This is another important signal. Investors are not simply buying “Romania” as a generic story. They are buying sectors where demand is structural and where strategic relevance is high.

Energy remains one of the clearest investment narratives in Romania. The country has gas, electricity production, major infrastructure needs, offshore potential in the Black Sea and a regional role that could become stronger if properly managed.

But this is also where the political tension becomes sharper. Romania has strategic energy assets, but the question remains whether the country can translate them into national leverage, industrial development, and long-term economic sovereignty.

A stock market record does not automatically mean a national strategy exists.

The Leu Sends a Different Warning

While the stock market moved higher, the leu continued to weaken against the euro. EUR/RON moved above 5.26, reflecting the pressure created by political uncertainty, fiscal concerns and investor caution.

This is the warning signal beneath the stock market rally.

A weaker currency can support some market segments, but it also raises the cost of imports, fuels inflation and increases pressure on households and companies with euro-linked expenses. It can also make Romania appear riskier to foreign investors if depreciation becomes disorderly or political instability persists.

The central bank can manage volatility, but it cannot replace fiscal discipline or political credibility forever.

This is why the BVB record should not be read as a clean vote of confidence in Romania’s leadership. It is more likely a vote of confidence in selected Romanian companies, rather than in the political system surrounding them.

The Real Message Behind the Record

The record high of the BET index tells two stories at once.

The positive story is that Romania has a deeper and more attractive capital market than it had a decade ago. The Bucharest Stock Exchange is no longer irrelevant. Pension funds, retail investors and institutional capital have helped turn listed Romanian companies into serious investment vehicles. The market now has liquidity, visibility and strong corporate names.

The negative story is that the country’s political and strategic framework remains weaker than many of the companies listed on its own exchange. Romania can produce market value, but often fails to convert that value into coherent national policy.

The stock exchange is rising because companies are performing. The leu is falling because confidence in the broader system is fragile. Both can be true at the same time.

A Historic High, But Not a National Victory Yet

Romania’s stock market record is important and should not be dismissed. It shows that capital exists, that investors are active, and that listed Romanian companies can create serious value.

But it should not be confused with a full economic success story.

A country can have a rising stock market and still suffer from weak institutions. It can have valuable companies and still lose strategic control. It can attract investors while still scaring them with political chaos. It can celebrate market records even as ordinary citizens face inflation, currency depreciation, and uncertainty.

This is the real context of the BET index reaching historic highs.

The Bucharest Stock Exchange is telling Romania that there is value in the economy. The leu and the political crisis are telling Romania that this value is not enough if the state remains unstable, strategically confused and unable to protect its long-term interests.

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The Fund has cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Romania to 0.7% — down from 1.4% in previous projections. That is not a minor revision. Combined with the Q4 2025 contraction of 1.9% quarter-on-quarter, it places Romania on the edge of a technical recession, the kind that shows up in textbooks as two consecutive quarters of negative growth and shows up in real life as frozen investments, rising unemployment, and a government scrambling for explanations.

Inflation Gets Worse

While the growth story gets worse, the inflation story does not get better. The IMF revised Romania’s 2026 inflation upward to 7.8%, before an expected drop to 3.9% in 2027. The drivers are not mysterious — the removal of energy price caps and VAT hikes is feeding directly into household costs. Romanians who spent the past two years being partially shielded from energy prices by government intervention are now getting the bill, with interest.

Unemployment edges up to 6.0% in 2026 before easing slightly to 5.9% in 2027. The current account deficit narrows to 6.8% of GDP — still a number that makes foreign investors nervous about sustainability.

The Deficit Is the Real Problem

Behind all the growth and inflation numbers sits a fiscal hole that the IMF is clearly losing patience with. Romania’s deficit reached 8.7% of GDP in 2024 — one of the worst in the European Union by a significant margin. The Fund is now explicitly warning of downside risks from incomplete fiscal consolidation, which in diplomatic IMF language means: the cuts and tax reforms promised have not happened fast enough, and the consequences are arriving.

The sovereign rating downgrade risk is real. Romania’s public finances have been under scrutiny long enough that another year of missed targets could prompt ratings agencies to act, raising borrowing costs at the worst possible moment.

External pressures compound the picture. Slower EU growth and trade barriers are already weighing on Romanian exports and foreign direct investment, removing the external cushion that helped absorb domestic policy failures in better years.

The Politics Are Catching Up

None of this is happening in a vacuum. Government Secretary-General Ștefan Radu Oprea has publicly criticised Premier Ilie Bolojan’s economic policies for the downturn, and PSD — the Social Democrats propping up the coalition — are making noises about exiting the government. The deadline framing is explicit: calls for urgent economic relaunch measures by April 20 give the coalition roughly a week to show it has a plan.

The IMF’s prescription is familiar and politically painful — structural reforms in labour markets, rationalised public spending, and a credible investment framework for medium-term recovery. These are not things that happen in a week or even a quarter. They require political consensus that Romania’s current coalition, visibly fracturing under fiscal pressure, has yet to demonstrate it can maintain.

The numbers are out. What happens next is a political choice.

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The National Institute of Statistics reports that GDP fell by 0.2% in Q3 2025 compared with the previous quarter, followed by a much steeper 1.9% decline in Q4 2025 compared with Q3. Two back-to-back quarterly contractions meet the standard definition of a “technical recession,” a narrow statistical threshold focused on short-term momentum rather than a full-cycle economic downturn.

Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan has framed the contraction as a predictable side-effect of the infamous fiscal consolidation, in fact drastic austerity measures, rather than a systemic economic collapse. “I don’t know whether there will be a recession or not, but one thing is certain: there is no country that has implemented measures to correct budget deficits without triggering some degree of economic contraction,” he said in a televised interview earlier this week.

The policy backdrop is clear: Romania is trying to bring down one of the EU’s largest budget deficits. The 2024 deficit stood at 9.3% of GDP, and 2025 has been marked by tighter public spending controls alongside tax changes, including the standard VAT rate rising from 19% to 21% starting 1 August 2025. The headline effect is weaker domestic demand in the short run, with the intended payoff being lower financing pressure and restored fiscal credibility.

Why do officials say it is ”only” technical?

Officials insist on the “technical” qualifier. The metric captures two consecutive negative quarters, but it does not automatically imply the broader characteristics people associate with a deep recession, such as a sudden unemployment shock, widespread corporate distress, or a prolonged multi-year contraction. Those outcomes depend on whether the slowdown spreads and persists beyond the fiscal adjustment window.

Looking ahead, the baseline scenario among major forecasters remains for low but positive growth in 2026 (around 1%), driven primarily by investment and EU-funded spending, with net exports expected to matter more as consumption cools.

The critical variable is duration: if the contraction proves short-lived, the episode will be remembered as a hard landing from deficit correction; if it persists, pressure will intensify on both fiscal policy and household incomes.

Projections for 2026 show 1.5-2% growth, though, backed by fresh EU cohesion funds and investment momentum. Bolojan’s February statements frame this as a controlled correction after years of excess consumption, paving the way for sustainable recovery without panic. Romania’s fundamentals remain solid, signalling resilience over alarm.

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Isarescu highlighted that inflation is expected to peak at around 9.7% in the latter half of 2025, driven by higher energy prices and fiscal tightening measures, including increased taxes introduced to consolidate public finances. These factors have put pressure on consumer demand and slowed economic activity. Growth has become precariously fragile, with some quarters showing near-stagnation or slight contraction.

The governor emphasised the importance of rapidly absorbing European Union funds to finance investments that can stimulate economic growth and alleviate fiscal and inflationary pressures. “Accelerating the use of EU funds is one of the best levers to avoid slipping into recession,” Isarescu commented.

Monetary policy remains tight, with BNR maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation but carefully weighing any hikes that could further dampen economic activity. The delicate balancing act involves controlling inflation without choking off growth, a task that remains a significant challenge for policymakers.

The Romanian economy is navigating a narrow path amid external shocks, inflationary pressures, and fiscal consolidation. The coming months will be critical as the government and National Bank of Romania implement measures to steer the country away from recession and toward a more stable economic footing.

For now, the warning from the country’s top financial official is clear: Romania is dangerously close to recession, and both monetary and fiscal policy must be executed with precision to avoid economic contraction.

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The carefully curated platform, accessible through the official BNR website, presents comprehensive archival documents, historical narratives, and the latest updates on diplomatic efforts. It highlights Romania’s legal and historical claim, supported by signed international agreements and guarantees from that era, to reclaim the treasure unlawfully retained by Moscow.

Romanian officials, notably BNR Governor Mugur Isărescu, emphasise the symbolic and financial importance of the treasure to Romania’s national sovereignty and identity. The treasure’s return would represent the restitution of a key national asset rather than simply a financial transaction. Since 1991, the National Bank has actively pursued the treasure’s return through diplomatic and legal channels, with the digital platform marking a relaunch of these efforts to inform better the international community and decision-makers, including members of the European Parliament.

The issue has gained broader recognition in recent years, culminating in European Parliament resolutions calling on Russia to honour its obligations and return Romania’s gold and cultural assets. While partial cultural restitutions occurred during the Soviet period, the vast majority of the gold remains in Moscow. The digital platform supports ongoing dialogues, legal claims, and public campaigns aimed at pressuring Moscow to resolve this century-old dispute.

By providing public access to primary documents and fostering international attention, Romania’s National Bank hopes the platform will enhance efforts to secure the treasure’s return and preserve Romania’s cultural heritage. This initiative stands as a testament to Romania’s enduring commitment to justice and historical truth—a national journey that balances diplomatic perseverance with the preservation of collective memory.

This platform also educates the Romanian public, many of whom were unaware of the treasure’s full story, ensuring the legacy of this historic episode remains alive for future generations.

The National Bank’s pioneering digital platform is thus not just a tool for information but a powerful statement of Romania’s rightful claim and a call for international solidarity in resolving the unresolved appropriation of a national treasure.

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Adrian Vasilescu, adviser to the governor of the National Bank of Romania (BNR), emerges as a key voice advocating realism. He points to Romania’s long history of spending beyond its means, warning that the country risks an “incapacity to pay” certain financial obligations if it fails to implement urgent reforms.

Vasilescu distinguishes this from outright insolvency or default, stressing that public sector salaries and pensions are prioritised and unlikely to face payment stoppages. His remarks recall Romania’s two previous episodes of payment incapacity in 1933 and 1981 as cautionary lessons, stressing that only firm austerity and fiscal discipline can prevent a repeat of such crises.

Another warning came from the Finance Minister, Alexandru Nazare, who said that Romania is facing a significant risk of recession in 2025 due to high public deficits, rising borrowing costs, and austerity measures, including tax hikes and salary freezes, creating pressure on public finances and economic stability amid political tensions. The government’s efforts to reduce the deficit and stabilise the economy will determine whether Romania avoids a severe downturn or suffers prolonged economic stagnation.

Yet, the most prominent voice in the country during these days, Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, takes a more alarmist tone, highlighting a very high risk of default without swift spending cuts and budget reforms. He emphasises the need for decisive government action to reduce deficits and restore fiscal balance, warning of drastic consequences if the situation remains unaddressed. However, we have to understand that Bolojan is responsible for passing drastic measures through Parliament, as the first austerity package was voted on this summer.

In contrast, Daniel Dăianu, President of the Fiscal Council, offers cautious reassurance by rejecting rumours of delayed payments or salary freezes. He points to ongoing government efforts to reduce public debt below 70% of GDP and cut deficits to sustainable levels by 2026, with credit rating agencies such as Fitch affirming Romania’s relative fiscal stability.

Adding an important voice from the presidential administration, Radu Burnete, Romania’s Presidential Advisor for Economic and Social Policies, stresses the complexity of the challenge. Burnete, formerly Executive Director of the Concordia Employers’ Confederation and an expert in labour and economic reforms, highlights that Romania currently has no immediate payment difficulties. His role includes advising on economic reform packages and government strategies focused on fiscal discipline, state reform, and social dialogue. Burnete emphasises ongoing adjustments in budget construction to avoid structural challenges and advocates for transparent and consultative policymaking to restore fiscal health over the medium term.

Economic analysts and credit rating agencies underscore persistent risks—high inflation, slower economic growth, and escalating insolvencies in critical sectors such as wholesale trade and construction. The looming bankruptcy of major industrial players like Liberty Galați enforces concerns about vulnerabilities that extend beyond public finances.

Together, these voices paint a picture of Romania at a crossroads. Vasilescu’s sober assessment of the “incapacity to pay” risk, Bolojan’s urgent appeals for austerity, Dăianu’s fiscal optimism, and Burnete’s pragmatic endorsement of reforms reflect a multifaceted debate about how to navigate fiscal pressures. Romania’s future financial stability hinges on the government’s ability to enforce disciplined spending, maintain investor confidence, and balance economic growth with necessary austerity.

In this critical moment, the country’s leaders and advisors agree in principle that fiscal reform and prudent management are indispensable. Yet, the nuances in their views reveal the political and economic complexities involved in steering Romania away from financial distress toward a sustainable economic future.

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Also, in the past, it was proven that the Romanian Diaspora is the top “foreign” investor in Romania’s economy. Not so promising perspective, right?

Remittances from abroad have long been a key support system, helping families with everyday expenses, education, healthcare, and housing investments. The volume of money flowing into Romania signals that these connections remain strong despite distance and challenges. The funds transferred this year continue to place Romania among the top countries in the European Union in terms of remittances as a share of GDP.

Predominantly, the money is sent from Western European countries where significant Romanian communities have settled, including the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Many Romanians moved abroad seeking better job opportunities and sent these earnings home to sustain their loved ones. For many recipients, remittances are a critical lifeline, especially as inflation and rising living costs place pressure on household budgets.

Experts note that these transfers do more than help families—they also help support Romania’s broader economy. The influx of funds plays a role in stabilising the national currency and offsetting some of the country’s current account deficit. Moreover, a noticeable number of Romanian expatriates are now investing their savings domestically or preparing to return and contribute through entrepreneurship or property purchases.

The data also reflects a somewhat complex dynamic: while remittances from Romanians abroad represent a significant inflow, the country is still faced with the challenge of more workers leaving than returning. Consequently, policymakers are urged to focus on creating attractive conditions to retain talent and encourage the diaspora’s return, to reduce long-term economic losses.

The remittance figures for early 2025 stand as a testament to the enduring ties between Romanians at home and those abroad. For many families, these funds are more than just money—they are connections of care, hope, and the promise of a better future.

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The rating benefits from Romania’s membership in the European Union and the capital inflows that come with it. Still, Fitch raised concerns about the country’s high budget deficit and increasing government debt. Economic growth is expected to be slow this year, with only a slight improvement in the next couple of years.

Romania’s Finance Minister welcomed the decision and said the government’s recent reforms, including tax hikes and spending cuts, played a key role in maintaining the rating. However, Fitch, along with other rating agencies, remains worried that these fiscal measures might slow economic growth or face political resistance.

The future of the rating depends on Romania’s ability to keep its budget under control and reduce debt. If the government stays on track with fiscal consolidation and improves the country’s external financial position, Romania’s credit profile could strengthen. But if it fails to deliver on its fiscal plans or political instability worsens, the risk of a downgrade grows.

Fiscal Consolidation: Romania has started fiscal consolidation, albeit from a very weak starting position in 2024, with the general government fiscal deficit at 9.3% of GDP. After measures implemented at end-2024 by the previous government, the budgetary impact of the July package is estimated by the government at around 1% of GDP this year with VAT increases (2pp of the standard rate, 2-6pp of the reduced rate) effective August 2025 as the main revenue side measure. Further tightening measures are scheduled for January 2026, including one more year of the nominal freeze of public sector wages and pensions.

Fitch Ratings on Romania, August 15, 2025

This rating decision, made official on August 15, 2025, is crucial for Romania because keeping an investment-grade rating helps the country borrow more cheaply and keeps foreign investors interested. Losing that status would increase borrowing costs and shake confidence in the economy. For now, Romania has a chance to prove it can manage its finances well, but the challenges ahead are significant.

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At a press conference, Minister Nazare highlighted that Romania’s budget deficit remains alarmingly high, estimated at around 9.3% of GDP in 2024, which is the largest in the European Union and far exceeds the EU’s 3% fiscal deficit limit. Although there are government plans to reduce this gap to about 7% by the end of the year, early 2025 figures suggest the deficit has worsened compared to the previous year. This fiscal imbalance adds to mounting pressure on public finances.

To address this, the government began implementing the first round of fiscal tightening measures on August 1, 2025. These include raising the highest VAT rate from 19% to 21%, increasing excise duties, and freezing public sector salaries and pensions until 2026. Two additional packages of fiscal reforms are scheduled for rollout before the end of the year. Despite resistance fueled partly by opposition forces on the far right, officials emphasise these steps are crucial to ensure fiscal sustainability and social equity.

Finance Minister Nazare candidly acknowledged the difficulty of the situation, stating, “Of course, it is not easy. We are all fully aware of the current state of the budget.” The government is also exploring sensitive reforms such as revising special pension schemes and altering state company governance to meet the conditions required for accessing vital European recovery funds.

Furthermore, borrowing costs for the Romanian state have risen steeply, with external market interest rates exceeding 7%, complicating debt servicing and raising concerns about financial stability. Experts warn of broader risks this fiscal stress poses, including a potential “hard landing” for the economy as public sector payments, including salaries and pensions, remain under threat if the deficit is not brought under control.

Political instability, alongside economic challenges such as the weakening of the Romanian leu against the euro, signals a volatile environment. Analysts stress the urgent need for a stable government that can enforce effective economic policies to prevent recessionary pressures from deepening.

Although Romania has managed to avoid a financial crisis akin to Greece’s by maintaining disciplined monetary policy and cautious fiscal management, continued political uncertainty and high deficits threaten this fragile equilibrium. The expiration of a precautionary IMF agreement in September 2025 further compounds risks, as the government and international partners have yet to reach a consensus on extending financial support, given disagreements over energy subsidies and fiscal measures.

In summary, Romania stands at a critical crossroads. The Finance Minister’s warnings reflect the real dangers the country faces economically, with recession looming if decisive and sustained fiscal reforms are not implemented. The coming months will be decisive in determining whether Romania can stabilise its finances without resorting to chaotic tax hikes or suffering a severe economic downturn.

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The assessment emphasises that while the immediate danger of losing investment grade status has receded, significant fiscal risks remain. The agency warns that if Romania fails to achieve convincing fiscal consolidation, or if economic stagnation undermines the government’s plans, a downgrade remains possible within the next two years.

Government’s Fiscal Package: Tax Hikes and Spending Cuts

In mid-2025, the Bolojan government introduced a comprehensive fiscal package aimed at consolidating public finances and addressing a projected cash budget deficit that could have exceeded 8.5% of GDP without intervention. Key measures include:

• Raising the standard VAT rate from 19% to 21%, with reduced rates also going up to 11%, effective August 1, 2025.
• Extending health insurance contributions to pensions over 3,000 lei until 2028.
• Freezing pensions and public sector salaries in 2026.
• Increasing taxes and duties, notably for the gambling sector.
• Implementing reforms to special pensions, retirement ages, and management of state-owned enterprises.
• Downsizing and optimising public sector structures through decentralisation and digitisation.

The package, valued at about 5% of GDP, is recognised as Romania’s most ambitious fiscal adjustment effort since the global financial crisis. While designed to address immediate risks, the measures will bring short-term economic pain: anticipated slower growth, higher inflation, and potential job losses.

Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan took full responsibility for the reform package, acknowledging the unpopularity of the measures but assuring Romanians that this difficult period will be limited in time. He emphasised the need for reforms to ensure long-term stability and called for cooperation from coalition partners and the opposition.

On the other hand, Finance Minister Alexandru Nazare highlighted positive signals from international partners in response to the government’s fiscal actions. He noted that there’s a high degree of certainty that Romania is headed in the right direction. Still, he warned that the work is not yet over, with continued monitoring and further reforms necessary.

The Broader Context and Implications

• Without corrective measures, Romania risked not only a credit downgrade but also the suspension of critical EU funds worth over €28 billion.
• The government has committed to further consolidation packages, targeting broader reforms in public administration, governance, and fighting tax evasion throughout 2025 and beyond.
• The retention of Romania’s investment grade gives the government breathing room, but Romania remains under scrutiny from both markets and European institutions. The path forward requires discipline, transparency, and full implementation of the agreed fiscal roadmap.

The latest evaluation reflects cautious optimism: Romania remains, for now, out of “junk” territory, but the threat lingers if fiscal discipline is not enforced. The Bolojan administration’s willingness to pursue unpopular but necessary measures and its public commitment to accountability signal a new chapter for Romanian fiscal responsibility, one that investors, EU institutions, and the Romanian public alike will closely watch.

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